Israel’s October 27 election is shaping up as a high-stakes test of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s leadership, with voters weighing his handling of the October 7, 2023, attack and the wars that followed. The outcome will depend not just on the biggest parties, but also on smaller factions that could determine who gets to govern.
Israelis vote for parties rather than individual candidates. The parties must then negotiate coalition agreements to secure a majority in the 120-member Knesset, or parliament. No party has ever won an outright majority in Israel’s 78-year history, making coalition arithmetic central to every election.
A party must secure at least 3.25% of the vote to enter parliament. Once inside, even a relatively small faction can gain considerable leverage if its support is needed to assemble the minimum 61 seats required to form a government.
Netanyahu, Israel’s longest-serving prime minister, has spent more than 18 years in office across three separate stints. With no term limits in the country, his opponents are seeking to end his tenure, accusing him of failing to prevent the October 7 attack and avoiding accountability for the security failures that preceded it.
Netanyahu’s right-wing camp: Likud and its allies
Likud: The party, whose name means “Unification”, is the principal force on Israel’s right. It draws support from working-class and traditionally Jewish voters and secured nearly a quarter of the vote in 2022. Its platform combines nationalism with market-oriented economic policies. Netanyahu relied on far-right and ultra-Orthodox partners after the last election to build one of Israel’s most right-wing governments in decades.
Otzma Yehudit: Meaning “Jewish Power”, the far-right party won 14 seats in 2022 after joining forces with the Religious Zionist Party and the Noam faction. Its leader, Itamar Ben-Gvir, became national security minister, putting him in charge of overseeing the police. A hard-line ultranationalist, Ben-Gvir has faced multiple arrests over incitement and support for terrorism.
Shas: This ultra-Orthodox party primarily represents Sephardic and Mizrahi Jews with roots in North Africa and the Middle East, communities that have historically faced discrimination in Israeli society. Shas won 11 seats in 2022 and supports normalisation with Arab states. Its leader, Aryeh Deri, was barred by the Supreme Court from serving in the Cabinet in 2023 after his conviction for tax offences.
United Torah Judaism: An alliance of two ultra-Orthodox parties, it focuses heavily on social services and the interests of its religious constituency. Like Shas, it is unhappy with Netanyahu over his failure to pass legislation guaranteeing military-service exemptions for ultra-Orthodox men, a contentious issue that has strained relations within the governing camp.
Religious Zionist Party: Led by Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, the far-right party advocates a tougher security posture, expanded settlements and stronger Israeli control over the occupied West Bank. Smotrich has overseen substantial government spending on settlement initiatives. The party has joined forces with the further-right Zehut, or “Identity”, but is struggling to clear the electoral threshold.
Amcha Yisrael: Founded in August by retired general Ofer Winter, the party emerged as an unexpected contender on the right. It sought to attract Netanyahu supporters dissatisfied with his handling of the wars. However, after an early surge in support, it is now struggling to reach the minimum vote share needed to enter parliament.
The opposition: Can Netanyahu’s rivals build a majority?
Yashar!: The new centrist party is led by Gadi Eisenkot, a former military chief and one of Netanyahu’s principal challengers. Eisenkot’s son was killed while fighting in Gaza. The party advocates equal military-service obligations and focuses on domestic concerns, including the cost of living and education. It has also called for a state commission of inquiry into the October 7 attack.
Beyachad: Bringing together the political forces of Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, the party seeks to offer an alternative to Netanyahu without abandoning the political centre-right. Bennett, a religiously observant but socially liberal politician, presents himself as part of a “new right” seeking to rebuild public trust in Israel’s institutions. Lapid’s Yesh Atid, or “There Is a Future”, won 24 seats in 2022, making it the largest opposition party at the time.
The Democrats: Formed in 2024 to revive the fortunes of Israel’s struggling left, the party brought together the centre-left Labor Party and the far-left Meretz. Labor governed Israel during its first two decades. Party leader Yair Golan supports including Arab-led parties in a governing coalition, setting him apart from politicians who rule out such an arrangement.
Yisrael Beyteinu: Founded to appeal primarily to immigrants from the former Soviet Union, the party combines right-wing positions on foreign policy, security and the economy with comparatively liberal views on social issues. It has previously allied with Likud, but leader Avigdor Liberman has ruled out joining a Netanyahu-led coalition, saying he would not do so “even if the world turns upside down”.
The Reservists-Economic Party: This new centre-right formation combines calls to end military-service exemptions for ultra-Orthodox men with a focus on easing the cost of living. Led by Yoaz Hendel, it has positioned itself as a potential “third bloc”, advocating a unity government involving Netanyahu and Eisenkot but excluding ultra-Orthodox and Arab parties. Its support is hovering around the threshold for parliamentary representation.
Arab-led parties: The potential kingmakers
Palestinian citizens make up around 20% of Israel’s population, but turnout among them has been held back by discrimination and political disillusionment. Arab-led parties could nevertheless become pivotal if neither major camp can assemble a majority.
Netanyahu and his principal rivals have said they would not govern in coalition with Arab parties, concerned that such an alliance could alienate right-wing voters. A closely fought election, however, could force political leaders to reconsider their positions, potentially giving Arab lawmakers considerable influence over the next government.
Ra’am: The United Arab List, led by Mansour Abbas, is an Islamist conservative party often viewed as the more moderate of Israel’s Arab-led political formations. It supports a Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital while campaigning on domestic issues such as crime and economic development. In 2021, it won five seats and became the first Arab-led party to join an Israeli governing coalition. Abbas has declined to join a broader joint list of Arab parties and appointed Yoav Segalovitz, a Jewish politician and former police commissioner, as his deputy.
Joint List: The alliance brings together three major Arab political forces: Ta’al, or the Arab Movement for Renewal; Hadash, a Jewish-Arab party established in 1977; and Balad, the National Democratic Alliance. Hadash-Ta’al won five seats in the previous election. The alliance opposes the Gaza war and Israel’s occupation of the West Bank, as well as laws defining Israel’s national character as Jewish. Those positions could make participation in a governing coalition difficult.
(With inputs from AP)