House Democrats' main super PAC is winding down its spending in several races where the party has struggled to make headway despite national trends working in their favor.
Why it matters: Democrats' ambitions of winning heavily Republican districts are running into the reality of finite resources at the end of a long and expensive midterm campaign.
- The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and its corresponding super PAC, House Majority PAC, have struggled to keep pace with their GOP counterparts' monster fundraising this cycle.
- Republicans also have the bonus advantage of a network of cash-rich outside groups, namely President Trump's MAGA Inc. and Elon Musk's America PAC.
Driving the news: HMP pulled back its spending this week in three Republican-leaning districts, according to AdImpact and a source familiar with the matter.
TN-05: Democrats were bullish about their star recruit, Columbia Mayor Chaz Molder, until redistricting made the district redder and embattled Rep. Andy Ogles (R-Tenn.) lost his primary to former state Agriculture Commissioner Charlie Hatcher.
- HMP has drawn down its ad reservations in the district from nearly $1.6 million this month to a little over $500,000 as of Monday.
- Trump carried the newly reconstituted 5th district by 21 percentage points in 2024. Cook Political Report rates the race as "solidly Republican."
FL-07: Facing a situation similar to Tennessee, Democrats liked their odds of unseating scandal-tarred Rep. Cory Mills (R-Fla.), who lost his primary to former local news anchor Ryan Elijah.
- Like Molder, Democratic candidate Bale Dalton, a former NASA chief of staff, was a top DCCC recruit and is part of the committee's coveted "Red to Blue" program.
- HMP essentially halved its investment in the district on Monday, cutting ad reservations from $3.9 million to just $1.95 million.
- Cook rates the race as "likely Republican," though a poll released by the DCCC on Tuesday had the two candidates tied at 45% each.
CO-03: A top target for Democrats when Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.) represented it, the seat has become a heavier lift for the party since she abandoned it and Rep. Jeff Hurd (R-Colo.) took office last year.
- Democrat Dwayne Romero, a real estate company CEO and Army veteran, is seen by party operatives as having failed to build the kind of momentum shown by Jessica Killin in the neighboring 5th District.
- HMP halved its investment in this district too, from more than $2.1 million last week to less than $1.1 million as of Monday.
Between the lines: The group has also made partial cuts — what it calls "shaves" — in districts where Democrats have struggled to gain traction but still see a glimmer of hope.
- That includes Arizona's 2nd District, where Rep. Eli Crane (R-Ariz.) is locked in a rematch with former Navajo Nation President Jonathan Nez in a race Cook rates as "likely Republican."
- HMP has also taken some money out of Texas' 23rd District, where Republican Brandon Herrera, a right-wing YouTuber, is facing Democratic lawyer Katy Padilla Stout in another race rated "likely Republican."
Yes, but: Some HMP triages are in districts where they feel confident the Democratic candidate will prevail.
- That includes Reps. Greg Landsman (D-Ohio) and Kristen McDonald Rivet (D-Mich.), both of whose races are rated "likely Democratic" by Cook.
- The PAC has also pulled back in the districts of retiring Reps. Darrell Issa (R-Calif.) and Don Bacon (R-Neb.), which Democrats are increasingly bullish about flipping.
The money from these cuts is funneled to districts the party views as more core battlegrounds — including some seats Trump carried by double digits in 2024 that Democrats nevertheless view as winnable.
- HMP has added at least $4.7 million to its existing investments in nearly two dozen districts over the last two days.
What they're saying: Phil Gardner, a senior adviser for Blue Dog Action — a centrist group backing Dalton — told Axios of the cuts in Florida, "I'm not sure what HMP was thinking here."
- "The rest of the party is not triaging this seat," he said, citing the DCCC's poll and House Minority Whip Katherine Clark's (D-Mass.) plans to campaign there on Wednesday.
- Gardner said he agrees with "95% of the decisions HMP's made this cycle," but that it is "bonkers they're dumping so much money" into Maine's 2nd District "while leaving one of the party's best recruits high and dry in Florida."
- Blue Dog Action spent nearly $500,000 to help Dalton win the primary, but it hasn't yet invested any money in the general election.
The bottom line: "We're focused on taking back the House," CJ Warnke, a spokesperson for HMP, told Axios in response to Gardner's criticism.
- Said Gardner: "I'm confident they'll rethink and make the right decision for the final week. Bale can win and hold that seat with everyone's help."