Rio Times Markets · United States
Key Facts
—Who. The University of Michigan published its October consumer survey, and S&P Global published its business surveys (PMIs).
—What. Sentiment was 48 after 48.1 in September, and one-year inflation expectations were 4.7%.
—Versus forecast. Sentiment beat the 46.3 forecast, while the services PMI of 57.9 missed 58.
—Why it matters. Households are gloomy and expect prices to rise, which makes the Fed cautious.
—What to watch. The Fed decides on rates on 28 October at 2:00 p.m. ET.
—Prediction markets. Polymarket prices no change at the Fed’s October meeting at 91.5% and a quarter-point rise at 7.5% (as of 10:15 a.m. ET, 23 October 2026).
American households remain downbeat and expect prices to keep rising, even as business surveys show steady growth.
Sentiment Barely Moves
The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index was 48 in October, against 48.1 in September, so it edged down slightly. It beat the 46.3 forecast in the RT economic calendar, which matches the preliminary reading earlier in the month.
Households expect prices to rise 4.7% over the next year, up from 4.6% in September and in line with forecasts. Five-year expectations were 3.5%, up from 3.4%.
In Plain English
The Michigan survey asks American households how they feel about their finances and prices. S&P Global’s purchasing managers’ index (PMI) asks companies whether activity is growing, and a reading above 50 means growth.
Business Surveys Stay Strong
S&P Global’s manufacturing PMI rose to 56 in October from 55.9, above the 55.5 forecast. The services PMI fell to 57.9 from 58.8, just under the 58 forecast.
The composite PMI, which combines both, slipped to 57.6 from 58.4 and matched forecasts. All three readings remain well above 50, so companies still report expansion.
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What It Means for the Fed and Emerging Markets
The Federal Reserve meets on 28 October at 2:00 p.m. ET, and its target range stands at 3.75% to 4.00%. Inflation expectations that stay high give it reason to be careful.
A cautious Fed tends to keep the dollar firm, which weighs on emerging-market currencies. The dollar ended Thursday at about 5.04 Brazilian reais, up 0.40% on the day (RT market data, 22 October).
What Prediction Markets Say
Polymarket is a platform where users trade contracts on real events, and its market on the Fed’s October decision has US$59.8 million traded. As of 10:15 a.m. ET on 23 October 2026, traders price no change at 91.5% and a 25-basis-point (0.25 percentage point) rise at 7.5%. These prices are bets, not polls.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What It Means for You
For US investors with Latin American or African holdings, steady US growth and sticky inflation expectations argue against a quick fall in the dollar. That tends to raise the cost of dollar debt for emerging-market borrowers.
For travellers, a firm dollar stretches US budgets abroad. See also our US jobless claims report, the auto tariffs story and our Markets hub.
What Is Not Known Yet
It is not known whether higher inflation expectations will turn into higher prices in the coming months. The Fed’s decision and its guidance on 28 October will show how it reads the data.
Sources: University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers (October 2026), S&P Global PMI surveys (October 2026), Polymarket (market data), RT economic calendar for forecasts and earlier values, RT market data (exchange rate). This is news, not investment advice.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index?
It is a monthly survey of US households on their finances, business conditions and buying plans. A higher reading means more optimism.
What was US consumer sentiment in October 2026?
It was 48, down slightly from 48.1 in September. The forecast was 46.3.
What are households expecting for inflation?
They expect prices to rise 4.7% over the next year and 3.5% a year over the next five to ten years. In September the readings were 4.6% and 3.4%.
What does a PMI above 50 mean?
It signals that activity is growing compared with the previous month. October readings were 56 for manufacturing and 57.9 for services.
When does the Fed decide on interest rates next?
The Federal Reserve decides on 28 October 2026. Polymarket traders price no change at 91.5%.