Disappointed primary voters weigh their choices: From the Politics Desk

Welcome to From the Politics Desk, a daily newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team’s latest reporting and analysis from the White House, Capitol Hill and the campaign trail.

In today’s edition, Ben Kamisar and Bridget Bowman have the key takeaways from our latest voter focus groups in Michigan and Texas. Plus, Kristen Welker dives into the downballot effects of this cycle’s key gubernatorial races.

— Adam Wollner

Focus groups: Their candidates lost in the Michigan and Texas primaries. Now what?

By Ben Kamisar and Bridget Bowman

Some voters who backed losing candidates in two key Senate primaries this year are still wrestling with whether to support their party’s nominee on Election Day, with major implications for who controls the Senate majority next year.

Michigan Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and Texas Republican Ken Paxton are both trying to stitch their parties back together for their battleground races after divisive primaries. Two focus groups — one with Michiganders who supported Democratic Rep. Haley Stevens’ unsuccessful Senate bid, and another with Texans who backed Republican Sen. John Cornyn in that primary — reveal how some rank-and-file voters are struggling to process personal concerns about the nominees alongside a desire to be loyal to their party.

The focus groups, produced by Syracuse University and the research firms Engagious and Sago and observed by NBC News, showed Cornyn voters who see Paxton as corrupt but are hesitant to hand Democrats a Senate seat. In Michigan, the Stevens voters worried about whether El-Sayed is too extreme — and some voiced concerns about his Muslim faith and his allegiances.

Both narratives echo how their general election opponents — former Rep. Mike Rogers, the Republican Senate nominee in Michigan, and state Rep. James Talarico, the Democratic Senate nominee in Texas — have sought to define them.

“I’m split down the middle. In this instance, I really feel that I am looking at the lesser of two evils and I’m not sure which that is,” said Kathleen S., a 62-year-old Republican from Comal County in Texas.

In these two 90-minute conversations, the Cornyn voters were more open to looking past ethical concerns about Paxton, the Texas attorney general.

The Stevens voters, meanwhile, included more political independents, and they were more hesitant to back El-Sayed, a former public health official in Michigan.

“In Michigan, I heard undecided Stevens voters growing nervous with El-Sayed, and in Texas I heard Cornyn voters abandoning their preferred candidate, Talarico, in order to put loyalty to the GOP first,” said Rich Thau, the president of Engagious, who moderated the groups. “These undecided voters truly contorted themselves as they struggled to justify a choice they feared they’d later regret.”

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Ramaswamy ad underscores how governor’s races could affect downballot contests

Analysis by Kristen Welker

The impact of Ohio Republican Vivek Ramaswamy’s controversial ad against Democratic opponent Amy Acton could be felt well beyond the governor’s race.

The ad features Acton’s estranged mother accusing her of lying. Acton has said that she has not spoken to her mother in decades and that she was sexually abused by her mother’s husband when she was a child.

But while Ramaswamy and some of his allies defend the spot, the flood of other Republicans condemning it — including Sen. Jon Husted, who is on the November ballot as well — emphasizes how the controversy could have a ripple effect downballot. One GOP strategist told me there are concerns within the party that the ad could turn off critical women voters in Husted’s race and multiple competitive House districts in the state.

Ohio isn’t the only state where the top-of-the-ticket contests could shift the dynamics in races farther down the ballot.

Pennsylvania has at least four battleground House races this year, and Democratic candidates could get a boost from Gov. Josh Shapiro as he runs for re-election. Shapiro’s contest against Republican Stacy Garrity is not expected to be very competitive, even in the perennial swing state, given his high approval ratings. But he’s been focusing intently on boosting downballot candidates, cutting ads and hitting the campaign trail. Starting tomorrow, Shapiro is going on a 10-day bus tour across the state.

Former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper appears to be pulling away from Republican Michael Whatley in the North Carolina Senate race, which could help Democrats hold the state’s uber-competitive 1st District, and maybe even flip the redder 11th District.

It’s a similar case in Arizona, where Democrats hope a strong showing by Gov. Katie Hobbs can help them in the 1st and 6th districts, both perennial battlegrounds, and in their push to defeat Rep. Eli Crane in a district Donald Trump won by about 15 points in 2024.

In Iowa, where Democratic Senate and gubernatorial candidates are running strong, Republicans have already retreated from the 1st District. In the 3rd District, Republican Rep. Zach Nunn is running a new ad aimed squarely at winning over Democrats. And Democrats are flooding millions of dollars into the 2nd District, which Trump won by 10 points in 2024.

The fiercely competitive Texas gubernatorial and Senate races, as well as the closer-than-expected Florida governor’s race, have significant downballot implications in two states Republicans made central to their redistricting push.

Republicans have shifted resources away from their bid to defeat Rep. Henry Cuellar, while Democrats are eyeing the redrawn 15th and 35th districts, both of which Trump won by double digits in 2024. And both sides have been pouring money into the seats Florida Republicans redrew to their benefit.

Republicans have a few top-of-the ticket dynamics breaking their way, too. They’re hopeful New Hampshire Gov. Kelly Ayotte’s strong campaign can help former Republican Sen. John Sununu in his Senate race. And in Georgia, the tens of millions of dollars Republican Rick Jackson has poured into his campaign for governor could be felt in other races on the state’s ballot.

Races for Senate and governor could also have down-ticket effects in Michigan, where multiple House races are in play.

We’ll dive into the latest in those Michigan contests on “Meet the Press” this Sunday, with exclusive interviews with Republican Senate candidate Mike Rogers and Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer. Sen. Adam Schiff, D-Calif., and our chief data analyst Steve Kornacki will also join me.

That’s all From the Politics Desk for now. Today’s newsletter was compiled by Adam Wollner.

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