Cool weather expected in PH despite Super El Niño — Pagasa

CALASIAO, Pangasinan — Residents of Northern Luzon and other parts of the country can expect chilly weather in December and January despite a potentially strong El Niño forecast from October through the first half of 2027, according to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa).

Jose Estrada Jr., chief of Pagasa’s Dagupan City station, said the northeast monsoon, locally known as amihan, would continue to bring cold winds to the country even as El Niño threatens to reduce rainfall.

Estrada explained that El Niño and the northeast monsoon are driven by different atmospheric and oceanic conditions.

READ: ‘Amihan’ season expected to begin between Oct. 22 – 30

“El Niño and amihan are two weather conditions that originate from different regions,” he told the Inquirer on Friday, Oct. 23.

He explained that El Niño is associated with unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, while the cold winds brought by the northeast monsoon originate from cold air masses over Siberia and China.

These winds move toward the Philippines, bringing cooler temperatures, particularly in December and January.

Estrada said the Philippines lies west of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, while Siberia and China are northeast of the country.

He said a Pagasa meeting last Wednesday indicated the possibility of a very strong El Niño, with sea surface temperatures in the affected Pacific region reportedly rising about 2 degrees Celsius above normal.

“Even a 0.5-degree increase in sea surface temperature can have a significant effect on weather patterns. Now that the increase has reached 2 degrees, we are expecting a super El Niño,” Estrada said.

He warned that the phenomenon could disrupt normal atmospheric circulation and reduce rainfall across parts of the country.

As a result, rainfall during the affected months is expected to be below normal, raising concerns about potentially drier conditions.

However, Estrada said the interaction of the northeast monsoon with other weather systems could still produce rain, particularly when a shear line develops.

A shear line, previously referred to as the tail-end of a cold front, forms where winds from different weather systems converge, triggering cloud formation and rainfall.

Estrada said these interactions could still bring rain to affected areas despite the prevailing El Niño.

However, he cautioned that the rainfall might not be sufficient to offset the overall reduction in precipitation associated with the phenomenon.

“Rain may occur in areas where these weather systems interact, but the amount will still be below the normal rainfall expected during these months,” he explained.

Estrada said rainfall during the affected period could be about 21 percent below normal.

Despite the projected dry conditions, he noted that the northeast monsoon would continue to influence temperatures, allowing Filipinos to experience the usual cool weather during the final months of the year and into January. /mcm