The OKC Thunder is the betting favorite to win the 2026-27 NBA championship, but what would be its second title in franchise history is far from guaranteed.
If anything, OKC's ascent to the top of the league will be even more of an uphill battle this time around. It'll embark on that journey without some familiar faces after trading away Lu Dort, Isaiah Joe and Aaron Wiggins this offseason in a trio of cost-saving moves.
"Losing three tremendous players and professionals is not easy," Thunder general manager Sam Presti said in an exclusive interview with The Oklahoman on July 19. "Our margin for error will be smaller than it has been for some time, but I’m excited to see how we come together."
OKC faces a field filled with contenders.
The Eastern Conference is led by the reigning champion New York Knicks, who brought back NBA Finals MVP Jalen Brunson and the rest of their starting lineup. There are also teams such as the Philadelphia 76ers, Boston Celtics and Cleveland Cavaliers in the mix.
The Western Conference is led by the San Antonio Spurs, who eliminated the Thunder last postseason behind the strong play of Victor Wembanyama. There are also teams such as the Denver Nuggets, Minnesota Timberwolves and Los Angeles Lakers.
A lot will have to go OKC's way. So, here are three reasons why the Thunder will and won't win a championship this NBA season:
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The Big Three is at its best
OKC knows what it'll get out of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. He'll continue to be one of the NBA's most unguardable scorers and one its best performers in big moments, but he'll need help from his co-stars.
Jalen Williams will have to stay healthy after being limited to just 38 games last season, including the playoffs, due to wrist and hamstring injuries. And Chet Holmgren will have to consistently assert himself on offense after underperforming against San Antonio in the Western Conference finals.
All three guys have at least one All-NBA selection under their belt. It's the best trio in basketball when at full strength, and it'll look to lead OKC to a second title this season.
Its depth holds up after this summer's moves
OKC will only get more expensive throughout the next few years, so it makes sense that it opted to save some money this summer. It traded away Dort, Joe and Wiggins for a total of seven second-round picks while not acquiring any players in said moves.
Dort was a full-time starter, an elite top point-of-attack defender and the embodiment of OKC's physical play style. Joe was a lethal floor spacer. Wiggins was a microwave scorer. All three guys helped the Thunder win a championship in 2025.
Cason Wallace, Ajay Mitchell and Jared McCain will now look to replace that production. But rookies such as Thomas Sorber, Aday Mara and Bennett Stirtz will also have to soak up some minutes. Depth is a key part of any title run, so guys will have to step up if OKC wants to reclaim the throne.
It gets some good luck along the way
Every title team needs a bit of good luck, and the Thunder didn't get much of that last season.
Williams only played in 33 regular-season games. Isaiah Hartenstein played in 47. Mitchell played in 57. And that bad luck continued during the playoffs, as OKC found itself without Williams and Mitchell for most of the conference finals.
But the Thunder still pushed the Spurs to seven games, and it's still tied with them for the best title odds this time around despite trading away a few pieces. As long as it can stay healthy, OKC should like its chances against anyone.
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Its players don't build off of last season's experiences
There might be a temptation to simply forget about last season. Discard a year that was spoiled by injuries. But all experiences are valuable.
When Williams struggled to shoot due to his wrist injury, he got even better at attacking the rim and playmaking. When OKC was simultaneously without Gilgeous-Alexander and Mitchell, Wallace made strides as a shot creator and ball handler. And when McCain got thrown into the starting lineup during the playoffs, he was able to shine on the biggest stage of his young career.
Those situations weren't ideal for the Thunder, but they should make the team better this time around.
It doesn't embrace change
Presti also said OKC needed to "embrace change and not fall victim to trying to imitate ourselves or our previous play style." And that's up for interpretation.
Maybe that means experimenting more with Mitchell in the starting lineup, giving OKC three strong shot creators at once. Maybe that means going smaller at times with guys such as Williams and Alex Caruso, who can scale up defensively. Or maybe that means going bigger and placing an emphasis on crashing the offensive glass, something the team doesn't usually do much of.
Fortunately, Mark Daigneault is as creative of a head coach as you'll find in the NBA. He'll explore all options because that's what teams have to do if they want to remain contenders.
It doesn't find a solution for San Antonio
Things can change throughout the course of the season. But as of now, it feels like OKC and San Antonio are on another collision course.
Health wasn't the only problem the Thunder faced in that playoff series. Stephon Castle made life difficult for Gilgeous-Alexander. Wembanyama neutralized Holmgren. And the Spurs won the free-throw and turnover battles.
Those problems aren't going to simply go away. San Antonio is a young team that should only get better, and it even got deeper this offseason with the addition of veteran forward Tobias Harris. It'll be up to OKC to find a solution.
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Justin Martinez covers the Thunder and NBA for The Oklahoman. Have a story idea for Justin? He can be reached at jmartinez@oklahoman.com or on X/Twitter at @Justintohoops. Sign up for the Thunder Sports Minute newsletter to access more NBA coverage. Support Justin's work and that of other Oklahoman journalists by purchasing a digital subscription today at subscribe.oklahoman.com.
This article originally appeared on Oklahoman: Three reasons why OKC Thunder will, won't win NBA championship this season