Last week I traveled to several countries to attend two international conferences — one in Krakow, Poland, then another in Sapporo, Japan. My route went this way:
Manila (NAIA) to Munich via Doha because my sponsor booked me on Qatar Airways. After a short visit with friends in Bavaria, Germany then Salzburg, Austria, I flew to Krakow via Warsaw on Polish Airways. Then I flew to Tokyo via Istanbul because my sponsor booked me on Turkish Airways. From Tokyo-Haneda I flew to Sapporo, then back to Tokyo, then Manila. My other sponsor booked me on Japan Airlines.
So, I landed and changed planes in seven airports — Doha, Munich, Warsaw, Krakow, Istanbul, Tokyo-Haneda, Sapporo-Chitose. The planes landed or left mostly in the evening or early morning, so I was able to see how bright the airports and the nearby cities were.
I constructed this table showing the size or area of each airport, and the total energy supply (TES) and coal generation per capita of each country. I added six other East Asian countries to fill things in. (see Table 1)
The airports in Doha, Istanbul, and Tokyo-Haneda are very wide and very bright. Munich is bright but the cities or villages around it are not. Krakow airport is small, the international departure lounge had only about 25 seats, so other passengers were roaming around until they queued up for boarding.
IEMOP PRESS CONFERENCE
Last Tuesday, Oct. 13, I attended the press conference of the Independent Electricity Market of the Philippines (IEMOP). Prices at the Wholesale Electricity Spot Market (WESM), as expected, were high in the September billing, double the prices in September 2025 in Luzon, but triple the prices in Visayas and Mindanao in the same month last year (see Table 2).
Luzon has plenty of coal plants plus big gas plants. The Visayas has a few coal plants in Cebu and Panay/Iloilo, and none in Negros, Bohol, and Samar-Leyte. Mindanao has a few coal plants too. That largely explains the higher supply margins and, hence, the lower prices in Luzon compared to those of Visayas and Mindanao.
The climate change establishment keeps opposing any expansion in Philippines coal capacity, but our coal generation is so low compared to many of our East Asian neighbors, and also compared with Poland and Turkey (see Table 1 and my previous column). We should ignore them and instead focus on a higher terawatt-hour generation target and not a high renewable energy share target.
RESERVES MARKET TURMOIL
This week, on Oct. 12, the Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) announced that it is suspending the Reserve Market “to curb elevated ancillary service prices, especially in the Visayas.”
I think the ERC erred on this. The economic team is building business confidence in the country, for example hosting the Luzon Economic Corridor Investment Forum last September. This suspension of the Reserve Market undermines the very confidence we seek to build. The ERC’s concern with reducing electricity prices for the consumers is understandable, but this suspension is not because it will make long-term price affordability and electricity supply dependability more elusive.
While ERC Chairman Nino Juan said that, “This is a corrective and temporary intervention, not a retreat from the reserves market,” there is no timetable for lifting the suspension. It can be weeks or months, and that causes more uncertainty.
Suspending the Reserve Market creates uncertainty over the revenues that investors depend on to finance and operate reserve capacity. It interrupts the price signals that can encourage investment when reserves are scarce. For developers and lenders, this raises a fundamental question: how can a project’s long-term viability be assessed when a key mechanism for earning revenue can be suspended?
Investors will respond by demanding higher returns to cover regulatory risk, postponing investment decisions, or requiring long-term contracts before committing capital. Developers may increasingly avoid merchant market exposure and wait for auctions or competitive selection processes. Such contracts have an essential role, but delays in procurement and approvals could then translate into delays in delivering new capacity.
There is also a reliability question that deserves a clear answer. The suspension does not mean that all reserve services disappear. The announced arrangements retain contracted reserves and provide for must-run capacity, compensated through cost recovery.
The National Grid Corp. of the Philippines (NGCP) has been directed to assess uncovered requirements and accelerate contracting, while a redesigned market framework must be submitted within six months. The NGCP is focused on grid stability that leads to price stability, and suspending supply stability at the reserves market will adversely affect the grid.
While those safeguards matter, their adequacy must be demonstrated through transparent information on available reserves, uncovered requirements, and the capacity that can actually respond when needed. It would be premature to claim that suspension inevitably leads to grid collapse. It would be equally unwise to assume that changing the procurement mechanism automatically resolves reserve shortages.
The better course is to address the causes of excessive prices through targeted, transparent reforms. The government should explain how much of the problem arises from insufficient supply, procurement delays, market design, or conduct requiring investigation. It should accelerate competitive reserve contracting, establish clear compensation arrangements, and provide a credible timetable for restoring a functioning market.
Consumer protection must include the cost of inadequate investment and unreliable electricity. A policy that offers immediate relief but leaves the country with fewer willing investors risks doing more harm than good.
Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr. is the president of Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr. Research Consultancy Services, and Minimal Government Thinkers. He is an international fellow of the Tholos Foundation.