El Nino Brace For The Worst – World Weather Organisation
Statement by WMO Secretary-General, Celeste Saulo
The World Meteorological Organization is today (21 October 2026) releasing a new seasonal climate outlook which indicates that the current El Niño event could be unprecedented in strength – literally off the monitoring charts that we have used for the past four decades. El Niño will peak towards the end of 2026 but its impacts will be felt long after that.
Our latest Global Seasonal Climate Update forecasts that sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific – the epicentre of El Niño – may rise to 3.8°C above average during November 2026 to January 2027.
This will have far-reaching consequences for weather patterns around the world. And its impacts could continue well beyond its peak around December 2026.
What does this mean in practical terms?
A very strong El Niño disrupts normal temperature and rainfall patterns across many regions. It can bring severe drought to some regions, heavy rainfall and flooding to others, and increased heat across large parts of the world. We are already witnessing extreme weather events and expect these to multiply – and cascade – as El Niño intensifies.
But a powerful El Niño does not have to be a recipe for humanitarian disaster. We have the science, the forecasts and the early warning systems to save lives and protect livelihoods.
What we need now is decisive action, especially to protect the most vulnerable communities.
That is why I am here today with Under Secretary-General Tom Fletcher.
The window for preparedness is still open in many regions. Extreme weather conditions do not need to translate into humanitarian emergencies or into casualties. But this window will not remain open indefinitely. WMO’s priority is to provide science-based information to assist governments and humanitarian organizations anticipate risks, prepare operations and protect vulnerable populations.
El Niño can compound humanitarian needs, particularly for already vulnerable populations like refugees, communities living in conflict, and displaced populations where housing, water, sanitation and health services are already under pressure.
So what does our latest outlook tell us?
East Africa: Wetter-than-normal conditions are more likely in parts of the region during the October–December rainy season, increasing concerns about heavy rainfall and flooding.
Southern Africa: Increased risks of drier conditions could affect crop production, water availability and livelihoods from November (the typical start of the rainy season).
Southeast Asia: Warmer conditions and rainfall deficits increase the risk of heat exposure and place additional pressure on agriculture and water supplies, like the increase in wildfire and smoke-haze risks we are already seeing.
The Americas: increased rainfall in Northwest US and southern parts of western South America – and we have all seen the images of flooding in Chile and the Parana basin. North America and the northern portion of the Caribbean is also expected to face above normal precipitation. In turn, there is increased drought risk in parts of Central America, the southern Caribbean and the Amazon.
These are seasonal outlooks, not predictions of individual events. Regional and national forecasts are thus essential to identify where and when action is needed.
Our greatest concern is for people already living on the edge.
WMO is working closely with OCHA and partners across the United Nations and the humanitarian community to turn climate forecasts into practical decisions.
Today, we are issuing a joint call for urgent and coordinated anticipatory action.
The forecasts give us advance warning. And we must use that warning to protect those most at risk.
We cannot stop El Niño. But we can prevent many of its worst human consequences.
Let us join together and ensure that we leave nobody behind.
Thank you
More information about: