Yinka Kolawole in Osogbo
A former Chief Press Secretary to the immediate-past Governor of Osun State, Gboyega Oyetola, Ismail Omipidan, has questioned the feasibility of securing 1.5 million votes for President Bola Ahmed Tinubu in Osun State in the 2027 general election, warning that the political strategy surrounding the target could undermine the All Progressives Congress (APC).
Omipidan also cautioned Tinubu and the APC national leadership against political arrangements that could alienate loyal party members, arguing that resentment within the party could weaken grassroots mobilisation ahead of the presidential election.
In an opinion article, he maintained that Osun State’s historical voting patterns did not support the projection of 1.5 million presidential votes, urging the president and the party leadership to adopt a strategy that reflects the state’s electoral history, political peculiarities, and the interests of its people.
He also expressed concern over the political implications of Governor Ademola Adeleke’s reported emergence as Osun State coordinator of Tinubu’s 2027 re-election campaign, warning that the arrangement could generate discontent among APC members if their established political structures were not adequately considered.
“In war, just like in politics, strategy is everything,” Omipidan wrote, arguing that a strategy driven by the ambitions of a few individuals could fail if it did not accommodate the interests of the wider party membership.
Omipidan said he first heard about the proposed 1.5 million-vote target less than 24 hours after the APC lost the August 15, 2026, governorship election in Osun State.
He added that the subsequent repetition of the target by the party’s National Secretary, Senator Ajibola Basiru, had heightened his concerns about the political calculations behind the proposal.
The APC lost the governorship election to Adeleke, who contested on the platform of the Accord Party.
According to Omipidan, the proposed target appeared inconsistent with Osun’s historical presidential election results, as the state had never recorded up to one million votes for a presidential candidate in previous elections.
Citing the 2011 presidential election, he said the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) candidate polled 299,711 votes in Osun State, while the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) secured 188,409 votes, with registered voters standing at 1,342,289.
In 2015, he said the APC won the state with 383,603 votes against the PDP’s 249,929, while the number of registered voters was 1,407,107.
For the 2019 presidential election, Omipidan cited 347,634 votes for the APC and 337,377 for the PDP.
In the 2023 presidential election, he said the APC polled 342,941 votes in Osun, while the PDP secured 353,860.
He argued that the figures demonstrated the challenge of achieving the proposed 1.5 million votes, particularly without a substantial increase in voter participation.
“Historically, Osun State has never posted up to a million votes in any presidential election, and it will not happen next year, unless some persons just want to write figures,” he said.
Omipidan acknowledged that voter turnout in presidential elections could differ from that recorded during governorship elections but maintained that the distinction should inform the party’s electoral calculations.
He urged the APC leadership to establish realistic targets based on the state’s voting patterns and develop a mobilisation strategy capable of attracting voters across Osun State.
Omipidan expressed concern over the political arrangements being developed in Osun State to secure Tinubu’s re-election.
He specifically questioned the implications of Adeleke’s reported appointment as the president’s campaign coordinator in the state, arguing that the APC must ensure the arrangement did not undermine its existing structures.
While acknowledging the governor’s role in the emerging campaign arrangement, Omipidan maintained that the APC should be allowed to strengthen its organisational machinery and mobilise its members in support of Tinubu.
He warned that party members who felt sidelined could become less committed to the campaign, potentially weakening the grassroots mobilisation required to achieve the desired electoral outcome.
According to him, the presidency and the APC national leadership must pay attention to the concerns of party loyalists who have invested time and resources in building the party.
He also cautioned against political arrangements that could create unnecessary divisions between Tinubu and the Minister of Marine and Blue Economy, Adegboyega Oyetola, a prominent APC figure in Osun State.
“President Tinubu and Oyetola must tread softly and cautiously,” he wrote, urging both leaders to consider the implications of the emerging political dynamics.
Omipidan suggested that those promoting the current arrangement could inadvertently create tension between the two leaders if the interests of the established APC structure were not adequately protected.
He argued that the party’s national leadership should not underestimate the feelings of members who might perceive the arrangement as favouring a few political actors at the expense of the wider party.
He maintained that the success of the president’s re-election campaign would depend partly on the ability of the APC to reconcile competing interests and ensure that its members remained actively involved in the mobilisation process.
Omipidan further argued that political strategies must reflect the peculiarities of the states in which they are deployed, noting that an approach that works in one part of the country might not necessarily produce the same results elsewhere.
He maintained that Osun’s political culture, voters’ expectations and prevailing interests should be considered in determining how the APC would pursue Tinubu’s re-election.
According to him, electoral mobilisation involves more than bringing prominent political figures together or announcing ambitious vote targets.
He argued that voters and party members are influenced by personal interests, political loyalties, emotions and expectations, which can shape their decisions at the polls.
Omipidan also drew on the Rational Choice Theory associated with economist and philosopher Adam Smith to explain how personal interests could influence voting decisions.
He said his earlier work applying the theory to electoral behaviour showed that voters’ decisions were influenced not only by candidates’ identities or party affiliations but also by their assessment of personal interests and potential benefits.
According to him, voters often consider available alternatives before deciding which candidate or political platform they believe will best serve their interests.
He argued that the theory offered a useful framework for understanding why political arrangements that appeared advantageous to party leaders might not automatically translate into widespread support among party members or voters.
He, therefore, called for greater engagement with stakeholders in Osun State to address concerns surrounding the emerging campaign arrangement before they developed into deeper divisions.
According to him, the APC needs to strengthen its structures in the state, address the concerns of aggrieved members and ensure that its campaign arrangements encourage rather than discourage grassroots participation.