Big buyers caught bitcoin at $80,000 on Thursday, but Glassnode’s order book data shows the bids under that level are getting thinner.
Key Takeaways
- Glassnode says the large $80,000 bids on Binance were filled Oct. 15 as BTC dipped to $79,800.
- Polymarket gives bitcoin a 53.5% chance of closing above $82,000 on Oct. 16.
- Fed’s Beth Hammack warned more aggressive action may be needed after a 6.3% wholesale inflation print.
A Day on the Order Book
Glassnode posted a heatmap of resting orders on the Binance BTC/USDT spot book from Oct. 15, and relayed the following message:
The large bids that sat at $80k for the last week were filled and new large bids were placed, pushing price up systematically.
Matched against Binance’s hourly candles, the day went like this:
- Before 13:00 UTC: Bitcoin’s price drifted between $80,500 and $81,900 while a thick wall of buy orders sat at $80,000, as it had all week.
- 13:00 to 14:00 UTC: The price of bitcoin slid to a low of $79,800, resulting in the $80,000 wall getting eaten into.
- About 20 minutes later: A fresh large bid appears just under $80,000, according to Glassnode’s annotations.
- 15:00 to 18:00 UTC: Buyers keep stepping up their bids, and bitcoin climbs to an intraday high of $82,634.
- Evening: A new resting bid forms near $82,000, and bitcoin price levels have held above it since.
What Does “Weakening” Actually Mean?
When Glassnode says support is weakening, it means the stack of buy orders below $80,000 has gotten smaller since the refill. The next test of that level would meet less resistance than Thursday’s did.
The leverage picture points the same way, as about $930 million in leveraged positions were wiped out in the dip, $780 million of them longs. On the bounce, $53 million in shorts were liquidated. That squeeze helped bitcoin get back above $82,000, but squeezes give a one-time lift as they don’t result in sustained buying.
Why Was Bitcoin at $80K in the First Place?
U.S. wholesale inflation came in at 6.3% on Thursday, a day after consumer prices hit a four-month high. Moreover, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack warned that more aggressive action may be needed to fight rising inflation, and traders watched Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s remarks on Friday for any hint of a hike.
Funds weren’t helping either and U.S. spot bitcoin and ether exchange-traded funds (ETFs) lost $391 million in a single session as a one-day rebound faded. Bitcoin.com News also reported that bitcoin’s price was teetering near $80K as a global stock rout spread.
What Bettors Think Happens Next
Prediction markets are pricing a coin flip right around current levels. On Polymarket’s daily bitcoin market for Oct. 16, the odds early Friday stood at:
- Above $80,000: 94.8%
- Above $82,000: 53.5%
- Above $84,000: 5.25%
The longer-dated bets are gloomier as Polymarket’s 2026 price market gives bitcoin just a 37.5% chance of reaching $95,000 by Dec. 31 and a 23.5% chance of $100,000. Bitcoin.com News reported those $100K odds at 27% on Monday, so they’ve slipped this week. The same market puts a dip to $70,000 at 39%.
That said, not everyone is nervous, with popular onchain analyst Willy Woo arguing that bitcoin should be able to remain resilient against a stock pullback because it has already retraced 50% while equities kept setting highs.