Texas' College Football Playoff Odds Plummet After Loss to Florida

Texas suffered another brutal defeat over the weekend, falling 27-24 at home to an unranked Florida team.

After starting the season off 4-0, including a statement win over then-No. 1 Ohio State, the Longhorns have now been dealt two straight close losses, first to Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry and now to the Gators.

The Florida loss looks even worse because the Gators didn't have their starting quarterback or top wide receiver, and Arch Manning was again one of the biggest reasons why Texas lost. Manning finished 14 of 20 for 173 yards and one touchdown, but also coughed up a late fumble that ended any chance of a comeback.

The loss has also damaged Texas' odds of making the College Football Playoff. According to Polymarket, the Longhorns' chances of making the CFP have fallen to just 36%, down from over 70% before the Florida game.

More news: Texas’ Steve Sarkisian Delivers Stern Message to Arch Manning

The Longhorns' undefeated start to the season included victories over the Buckeyes and at then-No. 14 Tennessee, along with commanding blowouts over Texas State and UTSA. But the recent slide has been costly. Texas now sits 4-2 overall and just 1-2 in SEC play, dropping to No. 19 in the AP Top 25 after previously reaching the No. 1 spot.

Two losses might not sound too bad, but when they're against unranked conference opponents, it's a tough look for Steve Sarkisian and the Longhorns. What makes their CFP outlook particularly bleak, though, is that their remaining schedule leaves no room for error. They'll host No. 7 Ole Miss on Saturday, a 5-1 team that's coming off back-to-back victories, followed by Mississippi State and then Missouri on the road. After that comes at LSU, Arkansas, and at Texas A&M.

More news: Alabama Put on Notice After Stunning Loss to Tennessee

More news: Paul Finebaum Sends Blunt Warning to Notre Dame After BYU Upset

Five of their last six games will come against SEC teams with winning records, and three will be on the road. With there being a very good chance that even one more loss could end their season, it's easy to see why the Florida game was so damaging.

If Texas misses the 12-team playoff, the fallout could be significant. Sarkisian and Manning were already under pressure heading into the season, and expectations were sky-high given the talent on the roster. Failing to recover from back-to-back losses and reach the CFP would be a difficult outcome for the program to overcome.