Hungary’s economic outlook could improve significantly over the next two years, with growth accelerating, inflation remaining relatively low, and the euro potentially falling to HUF 350 by the end of 2028, according to a new forecast from Raiffeisen Bank. However, the optimistic scenario depends heavily on the government’s plans to reduce the budget deficit and revive investment.
Hungary’s economic growth could accelerate by 2028
In its latest economic outlook, titled Hopes and Challenges (Remények és kihívások), Raiffeisen Bank predicts that Hungary’s GDP will grow by 1.8% in 2026, before accelerating to 2.4% in 2027 and 3.1% in 2028, Népszabadság reported.
According to Zoltán Török, the bank’s chief analyst, household consumption and growing industrial output are currently supporting economic activity. Although this would mark a gradual recovery rather than a return to the annual growth rates of 4–5% seen during parts of the second half of the 2010s, it would represent a notable improvement after years of stagnation.
Investment remains a major weakness, with the bank forecasting a 3.3% decline in 2026. However, this could change from next year, partly thanks to European Union funding. Raiffeisen expects investment to increase by 3.9% in 2027 and 7.3% in 2028.
Industrial production could also provide a stronger boost as demand recovers in Hungary’s main export markets and car and battery factories opened in recent years gradually ramp up production. Household spending, meanwhile, is expected to grow more slowly. Consumption growth could ease from 4.6% in 2026 to 3.5% in 2027 and 2.8% in 2028, as wage increases moderate.
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Inflation falls, but prices could rise faster again
One of the most striking developments in 2026 has been the slowdown in inflation. Consumer prices rose by just 1.2% year-on-year in July and 1.6% in September. Raiffeisen expects average inflation to reach 1.8% in 2026, before rising to 3% in 2027 and easing to 2.6% in 2028.
The Hungarian National Bank (MNB) has also lowered its inflation target from 3% to 2.5%, effective from 1 January 2028. The move comes as Hungary pursues its stated ambition of meeting the Maastricht criteria for euro adoption by 2030. The bank expects gross wages to increase by 7.5% in 2026, followed by more moderate annual rises of around 5% in both 2027 and 2028.
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Budget cuts could strengthen the forint
Despite the positive growth outlook, public finances remain Hungary’s biggest macroeconomic vulnerability. The budget deficit reached 6.2% of GDP in the first half of 2026, compared with 2.9% a year earlier.
Raiffeisen forecasts a deficit of 7.3% of GDP for the full year, falling to 4.7% in 2027 and 4.1% in 2028. Achieving this would require substantial fiscal consolidation, with the government’s forthcoming 2027 budget set to provide an important indication of its plans.
If deficit reduction progresses as expected, the central bank could gradually cut interest rates, potentially easing borrowing costs for households and businesses. The currency forecast is also encouraging for those watching Hungary’s economy. Raiffeisen expects the euro to cost HUF 360 at the end of 2026, potentially falling to HUF 350 by December 2028.