S leader Magdalena Andersson was voted down in the Riksdag (the Swedish parliament) on Thursday.
It was completely expected, she said afterwards.
The Instrument of Government states that three votes now remain. If a prime minister has not been elected, an extra election will automatically be called.
Politicians and political scientists have described this provision as necessary pressure to get the parties to sit down and reach an agreement.
Will probe the situation
Speaker Andreas Norlén will now once again appoint a so-called probe to investigate the possibility of gathering support for a government. The person does not need to be put to a vote, but Norlén has indicated that this would be natural. He will announce his choice on Monday.
"You could say that these votes are being used as some kind of game, an extra-election game. The closer you get to the fourth vote, the more pressure there is on the parties. That was not intended," says Tommy Möller.
Möller believes that Norlén will appoint Moderate Party leader Ulf Kristersson as the probe.
He could make it very short and maybe just call (C leader Elisabeth) Thand Ringqvist and get it confirmed that there is still no possibility of cooperation. He cannot be forced to stand for a vote. But he might do it, just as Magdalena Andersson chose to do, to drive the process forward.
If Kristersson were voted down, there would be two attempts left and the pressure would increase further.
When Stefan Löfven (S) was elected prime minister after the record-long government formation process in 2018, he succeeded on the third try.
Unlikely votes
Tommy Möller does not believe that Thand Ringqvist, let alone KD leader Ebba Busch, should be put to a vote.
Rather, the red lines between C and V will be loosened in some unlikely way, and a solution will emerge within the red-green majority, according to Möller. Whether that means one, two, three or four parties in government remains to be seen.
The red-greens are keen to avoid an extra election. If they are unable to form a government, it seems unlikely that they would gain new confidence from voters, he says.
If Magdalena Andersson is not elected in a third vote, it does not mean that the race is over for the red-greens.
There is nothing to prevent Magdalena Andersson from losing a third vote and still being put forward in a fourth, says Möller.