Having failed to reach agreement on any of the six or seven confidence-building measures discussed last July with the UN Secretary-General, President Nikos Christodoulides and Turkish Cypriot leader Tufan Erhurman stumbled on something they could actually agree on at their meeting on Tuesday. They would jointly attend the bicommunal peace festival that will be held in the mixed village of Pyla, in what was described as an attempt to improve the climate.
The process is moving backwards rather than forward. Instead of reaching agreement on the measures that Guterres had set as a condition for calling the conference that could have led to a resumption of the talks, the two leaders will be looking to improve the climate by appearing as a double act in Pyla on Saturday. Funnily, the bad climate was created by the two leaders themselves, with their public rhetoric and dedication to the blame game.
It does not seem to have occurred to them that the best way to improve the climate is by agreeing on the confidence-building measures proposed by Guterres, so that the process could move forward. The bad climate is between the two leaders rather than the two communities, the members of which seem to be getting on fine in their daily interactions. And this climate will not improve by them going to a peace festival and attending meetings of the technical committees. It will improve by the two leaders working constructively to move the process forward which they have failed to do.
There will be another face-to-face meeting next week, but without agreement on the measures,the current stalemate will remain. The UNSG’s personal envoy, Maria Angela Holguin, will have no reason to visit the island this month, as had been expected, and Guterres, who will be retiring at the end of the year, will most probably give up on his initiative. His successor, whoever that may be, is unlikely to treat the Cyprus problem as an issue deserving his attention, especially when getting to grips with the new job.
Another big step towards the eventual formalising of partition will have been made by the two sides, while President Christodoulides will continue his tactic of submitting new proposals – that there is no chance the Turkish Cypriots will accept – while forecasting positive developments and new announcements in the near future. He will carry on going to meetings “with a very positive attitude” which is not positive enough to achieve agreement on anything other than a stroll with Erhurman in Pyla.
The process has become pure theatre and it appears both leaders are happy with their respective roles, as leaders incapable of acting as leaders.