Where Indiana Ranks in the AP Poll After Ohio State Loss – Did Voters Get It Right?

After Indiana came up short at home on Saturday against Ohio State – final score of 19-15 – the expectation was that the Hoosiers would slide from their No. 5 spot in the AP Poll. And Indiana did, though it fell just one spot to No. 6. 

But what do the key metrics think of Curt Cignetti’s squad after its Week 7 loss? And was the Hoosiers’ slip in the AP Poll justified? Let’s answer both of those questions.

Where is Indiana in ESPN’s Football Power Index after loss to Ohio State?

Surprisingly, the Hoosiers actually climbed two spots in ESPN’s FPI despite their first loss in 22 games. Indiana’s actual “FPI” – which is measured as the expected scoring margin against an average opponent on a neutral field – did drop slightly from 25.8 to 25.4. 

But, with both Alabama and Texas falling, Indiana leapt to the No. 5 spot. There is a fairly notable gap between the Hoosiers and No. 4 Miami, though. Ohio State also returned to No. 1. 

Per the metric, Cignetti’s club now has a 31.5 percent chance of winning out, a 28.2 percent chance of winning the Big Ten and an 80.5 percent chance of making the College Football Playoff. 

The analytical tool also gives the Hoosiers a 10.6 percent chance of winning the national title, and it projects their final record at 10.7-1.8. 

The Hoosiers hold steady in ESPN’s SP+ despite falling to Ohio State

Another key metric – Bill Connelly’s SP+ – updated on Sunday, and the Hoosiers actually didn’t budge at all, sticking around at No. 5, despite their “rating” dropping from 26.7 to 23.6. 

The reason: every other team dropped off a cliff, too, including Ohio State, which saw its rating fall from 29.5 to 26.8 despite its win at Indiana (the Buckeyes are still No. 1 in SP+, though). 

Also of note, Indiana’s defense rose from No. 4 to No. 2, which isn’t a shock, considering its exceptional performance vs. Ohio State. Also not a surprise: the offense fell from No. 7 to No. 12. 

Where should the Hoosiers be ranked after Week 7 loss?

The AP Poll isn’t forward-facing (as those metrics are). It isn’t meant to be predictive. It’s supposed to reward the best teams based strictly on the results of games to-date (whether it successfully does that is a separate argument). 

So, with Indiana sitting at 6-1, there are a few teams that it cannot sit ahead of: undefeated Miami and BYU, for one. Then, of course, an Ohio State team that just came into Bloomington and knocked Indiana off. 

Notre Dame, though? Its best win is probably at Purdue or North Carolina – neither of which is very impressive. But, admittedly, losing a nail-biter at BYU is nothing to be ashamed of. 

As for Georgia, it fell at home to a so-so Auburn team (doesn’t compare to losing against Ohio State). But it also owns a win at Alabama, which Indiana (best win is at Nebraska) can’t exactly rival. It’s fair to go with Georgia above Indiana, or vice versa. 

At the end of the day, though, it doesn’t matter – at all. Cignetti put it best in his Ohio State postgame press conference: “It’s still all ahead of us. We can accomplish anything we want, all of our goals except going undefeated.”

A Big Ten title, CFP appearance and national title are all still Indiana’s for the taking. And the Hoosiers have shown enough in all three phases to make it abundantly clear those are realistic goals, not pipe dreams. And, of course, it doesn’t hurt to have Curt Cignetti as head coach.