Regardless of Bitcoin (BTC) recording a selloff of more than 5% over the first two weeks of October 2026, trading at approximately $82,663 on October 20, historical returns revealed a possible bullish close by the end of this month.
Between 2011 and 2025, Bitcoin has recorded an average return of 13% upside in October, according to data Finbold fetched from CryptoRank on Tuesday. With Bitcoin having opened October trading at roughly $83,592, the historical average signals a potential rally to $94,458.96 by October 31.
Meanwhile, BTC’s price has registered a median climb of 10.8% in October during the past 14 years. If BTC price follows its median historical return by the end of the next two weeks, it could reach a target of $92,619.94.
Consequently, the historical mean of Bitcoin’s average and median return is $93,539.45, which suggests a possible 13.16% uptick over the next 11 days.
Notably, the highest October BTC return since 2011 was 53.8% in 2013 while the lowest was a 35.1% decline in 2011.
Bitcoin price performance on October 20
Despite a choppy consolidation over the last four weeks, BTC saw its market capitalization climb to $1.66 trillion over the past 24 hours, amid the broader cryptocurrency rebound.
However, BTC’s 24-hour average trading volume fell by 4.45% to $25.32 billion, as per updates from CoinMarketCap.
Today’s Bitcoin rebound was driven by strong demand from the United States spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs), led by BlackRock Inc. (NYSE: BLK)-backed iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), as Finbold reported.
As a result, if BTC follows its historical returns, it could reclaim $90,000 and reach a mean target of $93,539.45 by October 31, 2026, possibly driven by renewed institutional demand.
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