The target on the back of No. 2 BYU is, well, as big as it has ever been.
It’s a glow-in-the-dark neon sign blinking “Open 24/7.”
It’s a prankster sign hung on the back of every Cougar player that says: Kick me.
A week after knocking off Notre Dame and climbing to No. 2 in the Associated Press Top 25, the Cougars travel to Orlando as the highest-ranked team to ever visit UCF’s Bounce House Stadium.
A loss Saturday to the Knights would unwind a ton of credibility the Cougars earned on their home field in the Notre Dame win last Saturday on ABC. A loss would chop off piles of saccharine and sugar frosting BYU’s fans have heaped on Kalani Sitake’s football team the past six days.
“We’re expecting their best,” Sitake said. “We have to make sure our best shows up. Stay humble, stay hungry and keep working our culture of live and learn.”
In 3-3 UCF, the vaunted Cougar defense will face one of the best explosive-play rate teams in the country. Head coach Scott Frost’s offense ranks No. 16 in that category, one of the only leading statistical categories the Knights hold over the Cougars.
Defensively, 7-0 BYU ranks as one of the top units in the country. The Cougars rank 12th in total defense, eighth in rush defense, 35th in pass yards allowed, 14th in team pass efficiency offense, and 13th in scoring defense.
On offense, the Cougars rank No. 3 in third-down conversion offense and No. 1 in tackles for loss allowed.
The interesting metric now that we are in Week 8 of the season is strength of schedule (SOS) and strength of record (SOR). Rankings are more accurately in focus because of win-loss records.
These latest rankings are taken from ESPN.com.
No. 2 BYU leads the nation in SOR, while Texas Tech is No. 8, Utah is 13th, followed by Houston at No. 16, Arizona 30th and Oklahoma State 45th. The rest of the league is in the 50s and 60s except for Kansas, which sits at 105.
As for SOS, struggling Colorado has the toughest go in the league at No. 12, followed by ASU at 26th, Iowa State 28th, UCF 31st, BYU 36th, TCU 39th and Houston at 44th. Utah’s SOS is 100th.
Because of the above results, BYU is in for an interesting matchup with 3-3 UCF, which has played a tough slate and come up short in their three losses, but did beat TCU.
I’d expect UCF to use their extra week to come up with some plays BYU cannot find on film early in this game and be successful. As the game wears on, UCF will be overtaken by BYU’s consistency on both sides of the ball. UCF has trouble closing games. BYU has yet to play its best game.
In the Houston-Utah game, I’d expect the Utes to use the late start, altitude and tough home crowd to ride momentum early and get a lead. Utah struggled in recent wins against Kansas and Colorado — defenses that figured out the triple-option principles OC Kevin McGiven deploys.
The big key for Utah is to score early and often and build up a lead because Houston QB Connor Weigman is by far the most competent QB the Utes have faced.
Houston and Utah are mirror images. Utah’s wins are over weaker opponents; Houston has played some guys with muscle and acumen.
Fresh off a five-touchdown career performance in a win over ranked Oklahoma State, Weigman completed 24 of 33 passes (.727) for a career-high 343 yards. This is the most yards by a Houston QB since Case Keenum in 2012.
Houston is by far the best team Utah has played this season and it makes for a quandary to pick this game after how the Colorado game ended last weekend with Isaac Wilson earning a shot at a win with a Hail Mary.
This week’s predictions
- Miami 34, Pitt 17
- Indiana 24, Michigan 17
- Texas Tech 27, Cincinnati 21
- LSU 34, Auburn 21
- SMU 28, California 21
- TCU 24, West Virginia 17
- Baylor 21, Kansas 20
- Illinois 27, Oregon 24
- UCLA 34, Michigan State 24
- Tennessee 38, South Carolina 31
- Alabama 31, Texas A&M 24
- Kansas State 17, Arizona State 14
- Oklahoma State 27, Colorado 21
- Ole Miss 27, Texas 24
- Arizona 31, Iowa State 27
- Texas State 21, Utah State 17
- Houston 34, Utah 31
- BYU 31, UCF 21
Last week: 13-4; 79-37; overall (.681)