What matters now is how Cal fares over the final six games of its regular-season schedule.
The Bears squared their season ledger at 3-3 and improved to 2-1 in ACC play after their 25-20 victory over 10-point favorite Virginia Tech on Saturday.
The road ahead is no easier for first-year coach Tosh Lupoi’s club, and it begins Saturday night at Memorial Stadium when No. 21 Wake Forest pays a visit.
Third-ranked Miami aside, the Demon Deacons (5-1, 3-1) are the hottest team in the ACC. They’re coming off their biggest road victory against NC State, 38-14, since 1943. And the week before that they undressed Stanford 57-3, the most lopsided victory against any opponent since 1941.
After Wake, Cal embarks on a stretch of three road games over four weeks, with trips to No. 24 SMU (4-1, 2-1), NC State (3-3, 1-2) and Virginia (4-2, 2-1).
Cal closes at home vs. Stanford (2-4, 1-3) in the Big Game, then vs. Pitt (5-1, 2-1).
Discounting Stanford — whose four defeats have come by a ghastly scoring margin of 195 to 23 — that’s five opponents with a combined record of 21-8, and three of them will require round-trip travel totaling nearly 12,500 miles.
But before we look further at the Bears’ second-half path, let’s review how things have gone so far and whether they are better so far under Lupoi than a year ago with Justin Wilcox at the helm.
The big picture is encouraging for Cal fans. Lupoi has recruited well, attendance has climbed and more vigorous support from the university administration bodes well. No one is doubting fooball general manager Ron Rivera's firing and hiring decisions.
Even so, Cal was 4-2 at this point last season and just 3-3 this fall.
The Bears were 3-3 the second half of the 2025 regular season, including impressive wins over Louisville and SMU. They also sustained an embarrassing 31-10 loss to a bad Stanford team in the Big Game, which prompted Wilcox’s dismissal.
A 35-31 defeat to Hawaii in the Hawaii Bowl left the Bears with a final record of 7-6. They’ll need to go 4-3 the rest of this season — including a bowl invite — just to match that record.
Let’s see how the two teams stack up at the halfway points of the regular season:
Cal through 6 games in 2025 & 2026
Win-loss record
2025: 4-2, 1-1 in ACC
2026: 3-3, 2-1 in ACC
Comment: With the win over Virginia Tech, the current Bears avoided just their second 2-4 start in 13 years.
Current win/loss streak
2025: Lost 1 (lost to Duke 45-21)
2026: Won 1 (beat Virginia Tech 25-20)
Comment: Cal faces a big challenge in its hopes of making it two in a row when No. 21 Wake Forest visits Saturday night.
Home attendance
2025: 38,898 in 3 home games
2026: 42,957 in 4 home games
Comment: The Bears have topped 40,000 three times and their opener vs. UCLA was a Memorial Stadium sellout — 54,283.
Points per game scored
2025: 24.2 points
2026: 26.7 points
Comment: The numbers vs. FBS foes are virtually identical — 22.0 last season, 22.2 this year. But scoring 49 points the past six quarters is encouraging.
Points per game allowed
2025: 22.5 points
2026: 24.5 points
Comment: Despite manpower issues, the Bears held the Hokies to 21 points under their season average.
Total yards per game
2025: 351.7 yards
2026: 397.2 yards
Comment: The Bears are trending up the past two games, averaging 433.5 yards, despite shuffling quarterbacks.
Rushing yards per game
2025: 96.7 yards
2026: 92.8 yards
Comment: The current regime has not been able to fix this. And it’s getting worse. The Bears are averaging just 79 rushing yards the past three games. Overall, they’re 134th in FBS.
Passing yards per game
2025: 225.0 yards
2026: 304.3 yards
Comment: The Bears hope QB Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele emerges from concussion protocol this week, but No. 2 Jackson Brousseau has been as good or better than could be expected, passing for 521 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions since replacing JKS the past game-and-half.
Total yards allowed
2025: 328.9 yards
2026: 367.5 yards
Comment: The next category full explains the drop-off this season.
Rushing yards allowed
2025: 123.0 yards
2026: 175.0 yards
Comment: Excluding the Wagner game, the Bears have allowed nearly 5.3 yards per rush this season. Cal’s run defense ranks 109th nationally,
Passing yards allowed
2025: 206.8 yards
2026: 192.5 yards
Comment: Factor in seven interceptions, and the Bears’ pass defense has generally been quite competent.
Field goals made/attempted
2025: 6 for 7
2026: 7 for 11
Comment: Towns McGough was 2 for 2 vs. the Hokies, but the Bears haven’t converted a field goal longer than 38 yards all season.
Turnover margin
2025: Minus-3 (7 TOs gains/10 TOs lost)
2026: Plus-1 (9 TOs gained/8 TOs lost)
Comment: The expected return of safety Kingston Lopa — who leads the nation with five interceptions — could provide a lift.
Penalty yards per game
2025: 56.7 yards
2026: 79.7 yards
Comment: Self-inflicted wounds have been a weekly issue. The Bears have racked up 251 yards in infractions the past two weeks and have four games of at least 80 yards in penalties.
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