Why Anthony Black Should Hold Out on Magic Contract Extension

When it comes to earning his next big payday, Anthony Black has little left to prove.

Already one of the most dynamic players in the league, Black has shown incredible two-way versatility, impact, and development on both sides of the ball through his young NBA career.

A high-flying defensive playmaker, smart team first connector, savvy off-the-dribble driver, and ready-made three-point shooter makes AB one of the most dynamic players in the NBA today; with his brother Beckham rising in NBA Draft circles right around the corner, he's clearly a part of a family of high-feel hoopers.

Entering Year 4 in the NBA at just 22 years old, Black is nearing his second contract; the 2023 sixth overall pick has interest from front offices around the league that will only continue to grow as Black's game improves and stays on display.

Not to mention, the growing popularity among fans after throwing down the NBA’s 2026 dunk of the year in Berlin, Germany.

Marc Stein recently reported that an extension between Black and the Orlando Magic is *not* close to being done and unlikely to be completed at this time. Jake Fischer tweeted this morning that, "barring an abrupt change, Anthony Black is headed for restricted free agency, sources say, after Orlando hasn’t engaged the combo guard in extension talks this offseason."

So, should Anthony Black take one for the team and accept a team-friendly deal just to help the franchise out? Only if that is possible to do while still locking in his best long-term earnings.

Helping an NBA franchise manage its convoluted salary cap restrictions is not his job; getting paid to get buckets and force stops is.

Black's spot-starting capabilities as a do-it-all super sixth man already have made its mark around the league; if Orlando can't afford or negotiate a deal that works with this current roster while meeting Black's contract demands, then now AB has an opportunity to further entice every team watching with his play so that his stock in restricted free agency next summer ends up skyrocketing.

Why Anthony Black should bet on himself

There simply aren’t many players in the NBA that do what Anthony Black does, especially when it comes to not only bringing impact on both sides of the floor, but versatility in his ability to handle a myriad of roles.

First off, Black is an elite defender for many reasons. AB can guard 1-3 with ease, and even some 4s defending on the matchup; he can make life difficult for practically any perimeter player as an individual defender, and when he's freed up to roam off ball in sync with an elite team defense, he's unlocked as a defensive playmaking ball hawk who jumps passing lanes for pick-six steals and slams.

Second, he's a developing offensive talent who has exploded with multiple individual leaps.

Starting out as a high-feel connector who makes team-first reads, then being used as a tall point guard operating pick-and-roll offense in a pinch, now Black has also added off-the-dribble highlight handles and downhill scoring driving dunks to his game in a way he said himself that he had never done before on a court, let alone in an NBA game.

Black's rapid rate of development can't be ignored when determining his long-term value; if AB is already one of Orlando's best players at this age, brings incredible impact on both ends, can fill any role one asks of him on either end of the floor, and only gets better every season, how can one put a limit on what to pay that type of proven NBA player with high-end two-way potential impact?

That doesn't mean one has to send out a max contract and give into every player demand, but Orlando's front office does need to meet Black in the middle, and probably cave a bit on salary to make sure he's fully happy with the deal he's agreeing to.

As one of Orlando's most important core players on the roster plus in the community, there are few things that matter to the Magic's success as much as locking in Black with this core for the foreseeable future; the team is young and good together any time they take the court, and that's something worth betting on.

What The Numbers Show

Including the playoffs, Black has appeared in over 70 games in all three of his first NBA seasons with the Orlando Magic.

In Year 1, he averaged 5 PTS - 2 REB- 1 AST in 17 MPG; in Year 2, he averaged 9 PTS - 3 REB - 3 AST - 1 STL in 24 MPG; in Year 3, he averaged 15 PTS – 4 REB – 4 AST – 1.4 STL in 29 MPG.

The rate of improvement is quick and across the board, but most notably in the passing, going from 11% AST% to 19% AST% the last two years, along with the STL% and BLK% going up nearly a full percent from Year 1 to Years 2 & 3.

Averaging 3 Deflections per game ranks AB as T-31st in the league in that hustle stat category; and according to Dunks and Threes, Black's +0.6 Defensive EPM rates in the 82nd percentile. His DBPM is positive every season, though his scoring efficiency has roughly stayed put or even gone down slightly as his usage increases.

Refining that scoring efficiency with shot selection and working on touch shots at the rim and from beyond the arc will likely bump that back up in the right direction. His 2P% has already gone up from 51% in Year 1 to 52% in Year 2, and while his 3P% of 39% as a rookie has gone down to 33% last season, his confidence and volume is just as important, where he's launching 4.7 3PA per game now compared to just 1.4 3PA per game in Year 1, over 3x as many three-pointers taken every night.

The downhill driving dunks show off Black's explosive athleticism, where he flies around in transition as one of the quickest high-flying forces in the league, racking up the 2nd-most dunks among any guard last season.

The lineup combo data is one area that exemplifies just how impactful and versatile Black's game is, as it translates to winning lineup combinations with nearly every meaningful rotation player:

Black and Desmond Bane rank as the 5th-best 2-man combo of any on the team with a +3.2 Net Rating in 1168 minutes.

Playing Black, Bane, and Wendell Carter Jr. together led to a +5.7 Net Rating in 895 minutes for Orlando, the 7th best 3-man combo of any.

Black rates highly in many of Orlando's 4-man combos last season – appearing in half of the 18 combinations with a positive net rating. (1st, 4th, 6th, 7th, 11th, 13th, 14th, 16th, 18th)

A 4-man lineup combo of Black, Bane, Carter, and Jalen Suggs has the highest Net Rating of any on the team last season (+17), along with an outlandish +120 O-RTG, thanks in part to shooting 37% 3P% to opponents shooting 31% 3P% over a 261 minute sample size. Some of that may be considered 3pt shooting luck; but there is something to creating your own luck when it comes to taking good shots with purpose and the ability to contest opponents consistently.

Playing with Combinations

A mix of Suggs-Black-Bane plus Paolo Banchero posted a +9.5 Net Rating, the sixth-best 4-man combo on the team, shooting 39% 3P% to opponents' 31% 3P% in 238 minutes.

Put Black, Bane, and Carter next to Franz Wagner, and Orlando outscored opponents by the same +9.5 Net Rating, in a smaller sample size of 172 MIN, where the Magic's opponents actually outshot them from three by hitting 35% 3P% to Orlando's 31% 3P% – this lineup was so good at everything else in basketball, Orlando was outscoring opponents by ~10 points per game despite losing the 3pt battle, showing one version of their tenacious defensive downhill scoring foul-drawing identity.

Suggs-Black-Bancher-Carter as a foursome posted a +6.7 Net Rating in 240 minutes, slightly out-shooting their opponents from deep on 36% 3P% compared to 33% 3P%.

Black-Bane-Carter and Trsitan da Silva posted a +4.5 Net Rating in 223 MIN as a 4-man combo. The next 4-man combo likely shared a high amount of playing time together, as Black-Bane-da Silva plus Banchero as a foursome posted a +3.9 Net Rating in 221 minutes.

Black-Bane-Banchero-Carter put up a lot of reps together on the court, playing a heavy sample size of 729 minutes together while maintaining a good overall +1.9 Net Rating.

Split the numbers however you like – Black's spot-starting versatility has saved Orlando many times before, and will almost certainly do so again.

At a certain point, when your ability to play any role on a dime for your team is utilized more than the players you're filling in for, your versatility deserves to be recognized for the value it brings as a key cog in this Magic machine.

This the type of prospect any team would happily invest in; Orlando has the advantage to get a deal done with the player in house where both sides are happy and motivated to prove each other right.

As a lifeline to their success, the Magic need to recognize Black's talent, before another team does.