Thailand’s scheduled international flights are expected to increase by 5.8% year on year in the fourth quarter of 2026, outpacing global growth but trailing increases recorded by Vietnam, Malaysia and China, according to Kasikorn Research Centre.
The centre published the figures on October 12, based on airline schedules for October to December. International flights worldwide are scheduled to rise by 2.5% compared with the same period last year, meaning Thailand’s projected growth is more than twice the global rate.
However, the centre warned that faster growth in competing destinations points to intensifying competition for international visitors across the region.
Most scheduled international flights to Thailand are expected to arrive in Bangkok and Phuket, meaning the benefits may not be distributed evenly across the country.
Flights from several key markets are increasing. Scheduled services from Europe are up 28.6% year on year, while flights from China have risen by 21.6%. The centre identified these two markets as the main contributors to Thailand’s overall growth in international flights.
However, scheduled flights from other important markets have declined. Services from India are down 4.6%, while flights from South Korea and Russia have fallen by 20.5% and 22.5%, respectively.
Kasikorn Research Centre identified geopolitical tensions, flooding in some provinces and persistently high jet fuel prices as three risks for the remainder of the year. These factors could prompt airlines to delay adding services or withdraw routes.
The centre also warned that destinations growing faster than Thailand could influence how airlines allocate aircraft, potentially putting pressure on the country’s share of the regional aviation market.
Separately, the Economics, Tourism and Sports Division reported that Thailand welcomed 23.94 million international visitors between January 1 and October 10.
The figure was below the government’s target of 36.7 million arrivals for the full year and 4.04% lower than the total recorded over the same period last year.
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