Another domino toward the long-awaited start of the college basketball season fell this past weekend, as popular analytics website KenPom released preseason projections for the 2026-27 campaign.
Statistician Ken Pomeroy's rankings, which sort teams by adjusted efficiency, have become a widely cited metric for evaluating college basketball teams since being released in 2003.
That said, what do KenPom's preseason ratings suggest about the UConn men's basketball program?
The Huskies begin the season at No. 11, an understandable drop-off after finishing the 2025-26 campaign at No. 8, given the loss of UConn's most efficient scorer, Alex Karaban, and Tarris Reed Jr., who finished among the country's top-50 players in rebounding rate and block percentage. Dan Hurley's squad is once again expected to be one of the sport's most methodical teams, projected to rank No. 340 in tempo and excel on defense, entering the season sixth in defensive efficiency and 29th in offensive efficiency.
Hurley set out to build the most challenging non-conference schedule in program history, and KenPom expects UConn's lowest preseason-rated team in four years to face a few early hiccups. UConn's most grueling stretch begins Nov. 18 on the road against No. 5-ranked Arizona, where KenPom projects that the Huskies have just a 30% chance to win. The odds improve marginally a week later, giving the Huskies a 31% chance to beat KenPom's preseason No. 1, Duke, and after a brief reprieve against Rider, UConn has a 36% chance to knock off No. 4 Illinois.
In UConn's previous 166 games entering this season, the Huskies had a pregame win expectancy of less than 36% in just five. Four of these games came during the disappointing 2024-25 campaign.
After splitting the Big East regular-season title with St. John's, UConn is KenPom's preseason favorite to win the conference. The Red Storm are once again the strongest challenger, projected No. 22 with a roster facing several eligibility concerns, but the Big East is poised to offer more resistance after landing only three teams in last year's NCAA Tournament. Six Big East teams, including Creighton, Villanova, Marquette, and Providence, currently rank inside the top 40 of KenPom's projections.
Overall, KenPom projects UConn to finish 23-9 and 14-6 in conference play. The Huskies have a .1% chance of finishing conference play undefeated, a first since UConn went 10-0 in Yankee Conference play during the 1964-65 season.
UConn's two home courts, PeoplesBank Arena and Gampel Pavilion, collectively continue to provide one of the nation's better home-court advantages. According to KenPom's HCA metric, which measures the difference in home-and-away performance over the past 60 games, UConn slots in at No. 35, ranking slightly below Xavier and Marquette for best in the Big East and 22nd among power conference programs.
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This article originally published at KenPom's preseason rankings released: What the numbers say about UConn men's basketball team.