Andy Burnham has ruled out an early election but new polling from City AM and Freshwater Strategy suggests the electoral calculus may be shifting, says Matthew Lesh
A few months ago, the idea of Andy Burnham rushing to the polls seemed mad. The current term still has almost three years left, Labour has a large majority in Parliament, and, as Theresa May most famously demonstrated in 2017, election campaigns can have unpredictable and unwelcome outcomes. Prime Minister Andy Burnham has repeatedly and aggressively denied suggestions that there will be an early election.
Yet, as this month’s City AM / Freshwater Strategy Poll demonstrates, the calculus may just be shifting. Labour’s vote has now reached 29 per cent, up nine points since July. This gives them a six point lead over Reform UK, who are down six points to 23 per cent over the same period. The Tories are up one point since July to 22 per cent, while the Green Party are down three points to nine per cent, and Liberal Democrats are down two points to 10 per cent. If these results were repeated nationally with a uniform swing, Labour would be just three short of a majority in Parliament, making it exceedingly easy for Burnham to stay in Number 10 on a fresh mandate. A clear majority (58 per cent) also want an election by the end of 2027, and 31 per cent want one as soon as possible (though much of the pressure comes from the right rather than the left).
Under Burnham, Labour is foremost consolidating the left wing vote. His signature policies – taxpayer-funded social care, electoral reform, a rethink of Britain’s relationship with the EU and a harsher stance on Israel – are catnip to Green and Lib Dem waverers. This shift is undoubtedly being helped by the Green Party’s self-implosion – with our polling finding 36 per cent oppose the party’s recent ‘Zionism as racism’ motion, compared to 22 per cent who back it. The Green Party’s net approval is down 14 points to -21 in just one month, while Polanski’s personal approval has fallen a further ten points to -30, pretty extraordinary jumps in such a short period.
The Budget is three weeks away, and 67 per cent expect taxes to rise, 54 per cent expect to be worse off, and 40 per cent think it will damage the economy
On the face of it, the left-of-centre bloc at 48 per cent (Lab + LD + Green) is similar in size to the right-of-centre bloc (Con + Reform). But in a first-past-the-post system, you cannot simply add the two together. With the right evenly split and unwilling to reconcile, they are far from the sum of their parts. Reform voters don’t trust the Conservatives to keep their promises, particularly on immigration. Tories don’t like Reform much either, and prefer Burnham to Farage by 53 per cent to 34 per cent. By contrast, voters across left-wing parties are generally happy to keep Burnham in Number 10, and are willing to vote tactically in their area to avoid a Reform or Conservative victory.
The window for an early election may just be closing. Burnham’s net approval is down 14 to +3 this month. The Budget is three weeks away, and 67 per cent expect taxes to rise, 54 per cent expect to be worse off, and 40 per cent think it will damage the economy. Given the choice, the public would now prefer tax cuts with less spending over tax rises, with support of 55 per cent to 33 per cent. Looking back, the time to go may just have been this month, before the Budget and a long, cold political winter.
Matthew Lesh is a Director at Freshwater Strategy