New poll shows deadlock between Chow and Bradford days before Toronto election

New polling just days before Toronto’s mayoral election shows Brad Bradford and Olivia Chow are locked in a narrowing race prior to election day on Oct. 26.

Several polls put Bradford the challenger slightly ahead of Chow the incumbent. Others still place her ahead of Bradford, indicating there is no clear favourite, according to research firms that publish the polls.

A new Liaison Strategies survey released Wednesday puts Bradford at 49 per cent support and Chow at 47 per cent among decided and leaning voters, with three per cent choosing someone else.

In this most recent poll, Chow loses a five-point lead she had in a Liaison Strategies poll published Oct. 13.

“It is a much less comfortable race for the mayor than it was last week,” said David Valentin, principal at Liaison in a news release.

But “this is not a result either campaign can treat as a clear lead,” he said.

Another poll published Tuesday by Mainstreet Research also revealed a very narrow race with a slight advantage for Bradford. The firm placed Bradford with 48.9 per cent support and Chow at a “nearly equal” 47.5 per cent, Mainstreet said in a statement.

Quito Maggi, president and CEO of Mainstreet, said in a news release that Bradford leads in Etobicoke and North York while Chow is ahead in Scarborough and downtown.

But research firm Pollara Strategic Insights has Chow in a much firmer lead in its new polling also published Tuesday. It found incumbent Olivia Chow ahead of Brad Bradford by seven points among decided voters, 53 per cent to 46 per cent.

That polling also found a significant gender gap in voting intentions. Chow leads among decided women (60 per cent compared to 39 per cent of women for Bradford), while slightly more men are leaning towards Bradford (52 per cent to 45 per cent).

Both candidates have been hitting the pavement daily in the final week before the Oct. 26 election to reach those precious undecided voters who may push the vote slightly more on either side.  Chow and Bradford have been quick to trade barbs, with Chow accusing her opponent Tuesday of neglecting residents in his own ward, and Bradford claiming that Chow has failed to address the city’s traffic and transit woes.

While advance polls have closed, voters will have a final chance to vote on election day Monday.

Liaison Strategies surveyed a random sample of 1,000 Toronto residents from October 18 to October 19, 2026, using conventional phone and Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology. The margin of error is +/- 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The margin is higher for subsamples, including decided and leaning voters.

Mainstreet Research conducted its survey between October 16 and October 18, 2026 with a sample size of 1,000 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Toronto. The survey was conducted using conventional phone Interactive Voice Response (IVR) technology. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 3.1% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample. 

The Pollara Strategic Insights survey was fielded October 13 to 19, 2026. It surveyed Toronto residents aged 18+ eligible to vote (695 online panel, 404 live telephone). The poll was commissioned by CUPE Local 416 (Toronto Civic Employees’ Union). It was weighted to census data by gender, age and region. It states that “because the sample includes an online panel, no margin of error applies”. A probability sample of 1,099 would carry a margin of error of +/- 3.0 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, and more for subgroups. Subgroups with an unweighted base under 100 should be read with caution, it says.