Outside South Africa, Ghana and Kenya offer the strongest near-term vehicle assembly growth in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA).
According to Fitch Solutions, Ghana are best positioned to attract new assembly investment over the medium term in Sub-Saharan Africa.
“Ghana’s automotive industry remains smaller in scale but continues to benefit from supportive policy measures. The Auto Policy and local assembly incentives are encouraging investment, while improving consumer confidence should support demand growth”, it said.
“We forecast production to rise from around 4,700 units in 2025 to approximately 4,900 units in 2026. Although the expiry of the VAT exemption on locally assembled vehicles presents a near-term challenge, continued policy support should help increase local content and support gradual growth in assembly activity”, it added.
The UK-based firm said recent developments also highlight growing confidence in Ghana’s assembly sector.
In September 2026, Zonda Tec expanded its Tema assembly facility, increasing annual production capacity to 12,000 passenger vehicles, commercial vehicles and EVs and creating an estimated 1,000 jobs.
While Ghana’s manufacturing base remains relatively small, Fitch Solutions said the expansion demonstrates continued investor willingness to scale production capacity in the market.
Regional Integration Could Become Important
It added that regional integration could become increasingly important for both markets because supplier networks remain relatively underdeveloped.
“AfCFTA’s [Africa Continental Free Trade Area] automotive framework creates scope for countries to participate in automotive value chains through components, materials and supplier industries rather than relying solely on final vehicle assembly. This should support gradual growth in local manufacturing activity as regional trade links deepen and sourcing becomes more integrated across African markets”.
Neither market, it said, is likely to emerge as a major export hub over the medium term, but both should play a growing role in regional vehicle assembly.