The number of migrants arriving in Europe by sea from four West African countries declined by 59% in the first half of 2026 compared with the corresponding period in 2025, according to new figures from the International Organization for Migration (IOM).
The figures were contained in the IOM’s report, titled Europe – Main West African Nationalities Among Sea Arrivals to Europe in 2025 and 2026, published on October 13, 2026.
The report revealed that 4,566 migrants from Mali, Senegal, Guinea and The Gambia arrived in Europe through three major maritime routes between January and June 2026, reflecting a significant decline in arrivals from the four countries despite persistent migration pressures and growing risks along alternative routes.
IOM warns of shifting migration routes
IOM Director General Amy Pope warned that declining arrivals along certain routes did not necessarily mean fewer people were attempting to migrate, as tighter border controls and other pressures could push migrants towards alternative, potentially more dangerous crossings.
- “Fewer arrivals in one place doesn’t mean the pressures have gone away,” Pope said. “They often just shift to other routes. That’s why we need to look at the whole journey, from where people leave to where they arrive.”
According to the report, the West African Atlantic Route remained the principal route for West African migrants heading towards Europe, with nationals from the region accounting for 83% of arrivals recorded along that route between January and June 2026.
During the period under review, IOM data showed that 1,589 migrants from Mali, 1,184 from Senegal, 1,076 from Guinea and 919 from The Gambia arrived in Europe through mixed migration routes.
- “During this period, 4,566 individuals from Mali, Senegal, Guinea and The Gambia were registered, predominantly in Spain (-59% compared to the first half of 2025),” the report stated.
This represents a 59% decline from an estimated 11,137 arrivals recorded during the corresponding period in 2025.
On the Western Mediterranean Route, the proportion of arrivals involving West African nationals increased from 15.6% in 2025 to 21.9% in the first half of 2026.
- Similarly, the share of West African nationals among arrivals along the Central Mediterranean Route rose from 8.6% to 10.5% over the same period.
- The figures suggest that although overall arrivals from the four countries declined, the representation of West African migrants along Mediterranean routes increased, indicating shifts in migration patterns.
However, the IOM warned that the Atlantic route had become increasingly dangerous despite the reduction in arrivals, with recorded deaths and disappearances remaining relatively high.
Over 60,300 Nigerians assisted home
Despite the dangers associated with irregular migration, many Africans continue to undertake hazardous journeys in search of better economic opportunities, with thousands eventually becoming stranded or requiring assistance to return to their countries of origin.
- In March 2026, Nairametrics reported that more than 60,300 Nigerian migrants had returned home through assisted voluntary return programmes since 2017 after becoming stranded along dangerous migration routes.
- The IOM disclosed that many of the returnees had experienced exploitation, abuse and other life-threatening conditions while attempting to reach their intended destinations.
The figure represents a substantial increase from December 2020, when Nairametrics reported that approximately 16,800 Nigerians had been assisted to return under an IOM and European Union-backed return and reintegration initiative launched in 2017.
UK and US tighten immigration rules
The decline in arrivals from the four West African countries comes amid increasingly restrictive immigration policies across several Western countries, where governments have introduced tougher eligibility requirements and other measures affecting legal migration pathways while strengthening controls against irregular entry.
Nairametrics recently examined countries introducing tougher immigration conditions for Nigerians seeking to relocate abroad, including restrictions affecting employment, study and residency opportunities.
- One of these countries is the United Kingdom, which has tightened requirements for foreign workers, including Nigerians seeking employment opportunities.
- In July 2025, the UK increased the minimum skill requirement for most Skilled Worker visas to degree-level occupations, while raising the standard minimum salary threshold from £38,700 to £41,700, subject to applicable exceptions.
- The government also ended new overseas applications for care worker and senior care worker roles, restricting a migration pathway previously used by foreign workers.
The UK has also introduced changes affecting international graduates, including a reduction in the duration of its Graduate visa from two years to 18 months for most eligible applicants from January 1, 2027, although doctoral graduates will retain the three-year period.
- Beyond Europe, the United States has also recorded a sharp increase in the rejection of certain immigration-related applications.
More recently, Nairametrics reported that the United States Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) denied 35,767 work permit applications from foreign nationals seeking Green Cards between April and June 2026.