BRAZIL · ELECTIONS
Published Saturday, 24 October, 7:30 p.m. ET · Source: TSE (Brazil’s electoral court)
Key Facts
- What changed The TSE counts 394 voting sections moved to a new address between the first round and the runoff on Sunday 25 October.
- The numbers That is 0.08% of all sections, spread over 106 voting locations, and about 122,900 voters are affected.
- Why Extreme weather, building problems and public safety concerns forced the moves.
- What to do Voters can check their address in the e-Título app under “Onde votar” before leaving home.
- Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
- Prediction markets Kalshi, regulated in the US by the CFTC, prices a Flávio Bolsonaro win by at least 1 point at 80% (24 October, 7:10 p.m. ET). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 84% and Kalshi at 83% (Lula: 17% and 18%), as of 24 October, 7:20 pm ET; prices are bets, not polls.
Brazil’s electoral court, the TSE, counts 394 voting sections that will use a different location in Sunday’s runoff than in the first round. About 122,900 voters are affected, according to Jornal de Brasília, as Brazil picks its president in the Brazil election 2026 runoff.
Brazil Election Data Room
Runoff poll average: Flávio Bolsonaro 51.0%, Lula 49.0%
44 national polls from 21 pollsters since 4 October, updated hourly. Every poll, free to download.
The final count is far below the 5,822 changes of 2022, but it matters to anyone planning to vote or follow turnout. Polls open at 8 a.m. in Brasília (7 a.m. ET) and close at 5 p.m. (4 p.m. ET), per the Brazil runoff date and timetable guide.
How Many Voting Sections Moved
As of 3:28 p.m. Brasília time (2:28 p.m. ET) on Saturday, 394 sections had changed location, according to TSE figures reported by Diário do Grande ABC. A voting section is one polling station with its own ballot box, and several sit inside each voting location.
The number rose from 362 in an earlier TSE update, Jornal de Brasília reported, and the 394 sections sit in 106 voting locations. That equals 0.08% of the national total.
Where the Changes Are Concentrated
Pará has the most moved sections with 58, followed by Minas Gerais with 49, Ceará with 30 and Piauí with 29, Jornal de Brasília reported. By region, the Northeast has 127 sections, the North 103 and the Southeast 97.
Minas Gerais is Brazil’s second most populous state, so even a small share of moved sections there touches many voters. Pará lies in the Amazon region of northern Brazil.
Why the Court Moved Them
Regional electoral courts told the TSE that changes happen only when “absolutamente necessário”, meaning absolutely necessary, and for extraordinary reasons, CNN Brasil reported. These include extreme weather, building problems not spotted earlier and public safety concerns.
Wildfires and heavy rain are among the climate causes, Jornal de Brasília reported. Early counts after the first round were much higher, at 4,352 sections, before regional courts updated their data, Aos Fatos reported.
How Voters Can Check Their Address
Voters can open the e-Título app, the official digital voter ID, and tap “Onde votar” to see their address, section number and electoral zone. The TSE website offers the same search with name, tax ID, birth date and mother’s name, CNN Brasil reported.
Anyone whose polling place changed should plan extra travel time on Sunday.
What It Means for US Readers
For investors and companies watching Brazil, a smooth vote day lowers the risk of disputes that can move the real and Brazilian stocks. A change affecting 0.08% of sections is small, but a close race makes every turnout story matter.
Our Brazil election 2026 coverage follows the vote and the count on Sunday. Official results come only from the TSE.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Kalshi, a prediction market regulated in the US by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), traders price a Flávio Bolsonaro win by at least 1 point at 80% and by at least 3 points at 56% (24 October, 7:10 p.m. ET). A Lula win by at least 1 point trades at 13%, with 41,614 contracts traded on the Flávio margin market.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 83.9% · Lula 16.5% (US$196 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 83% · Lula 18%
As of 24 October, 7:20 pm ET (00:20 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Is Not Known
The TSE has not said whether more sections could change on Sunday morning, and the counts have shifted several times this week. The number of voters who will fail to find their new polling place is not known.
It is also unclear whether the moves will affect turnout in any state. Official turnout and results come only from the TSE.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
How many polling sections changed for Brazil’s runoff?
The TSE counts 394 sections with a new location, 0.08% of the national total. About 122,900 voters are affected.
Why did Brazil move polling places before the runoff?
Regional electoral courts cite extreme weather, building problems not found earlier and public safety concerns. They say moves happen only when absolutely necessary.
How do I find my polling place in Brazil?
Open the e-Título app and tap “Onde votar”, or search on the TSE website. You will see your address, section and zone.
When is Brazil’s runoff?
Brazil votes on Sunday 25 October. Polls open at 8 a.m. in Brasília (7 a.m. ET) and close at 5 p.m. (4 p.m. ET).
Is that more than in 2022?
No. The 2022 runoff saw 5,822 changes, according to CNN Brasil, far more than the 394 this year.
Sources: CNN Brasil, 24 October 2026; Jornal de Brasília (Folhapress), 24 October 2026; O Liberal, 24 October 2026; Diário do Grande ABC, 24 October 2026; Aos Fatos, October 2026; TSE data as cited by these outlets.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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