Week 5 is too early to declare a game a 'must-win' situation for most teams, but the Chicago Bears may qualify. They're looking to pick up a third straight victory against the Green Bay Packers for the first time in 20 years, an achievement that would mark a true reversal of fortunes in the NFL's oldest and best rivalry.
The Bears actually ended another 20-year streak already by being favored to win at Lambeau Field for the first time since 2006. Most people expect them to pick up this win, thanks in no small part to some key injuries in Green Bay, but it won't be easy. Not only is the weight of history against the Bears, but they're once again playing without their starting quarterback, Caleb Williams.
That said, I do expect them to win, and win big. Head coach Ben Johnson should have his offense rolling against a vulnerable Packers defense, and defensive coordinator Dennis Allen will put on a masterclass and shut the Packers offense down. Bears fans should get ready for some impressive performances from key playmakers, starting with a fan-favorite tight end.
1. Colston Loveland: Seven receptions on 10 targets for 100 yards and two touchdowns
Today is the day that the confusing disappearance of Colston Loveland to start this season ends. The Packers lost star linebacker Edgerrin Cooper to a season-ending injury last week, and that should create a mismatch nightmare for Loveland to exploit. I expect him to be Tyson Bagent's top target this afternoon, and he'll produce his first 100-yard outing of the year.
2. Tyson Bagent: 24-for-30 passing for 300 yards, three touchdowns, and one interception
Despite a handful of poor passes last week, Tyson Bagent actually played an efficient game against what had been a top NFL defense. Now that he's warmed up, I expect Bagent to go off against a weak Green Bay defense. I'm predicting he completes an absurd 80% of his passes for 300 yards and a trio of touchdowns. He'll throw another interception, but he's going to take much better care of the ball this week.
3. Dayo Odeyingbo gets two sacks and four tackles for loss
The 'Motivated Dayo' meme got a lot of laughs from Bears fans this offseason, but Odeyingbo has quietly been off to a great start this season and we're nearing the point where Bears fans will owe him an apology. In fact, we'll hit that point today if Odeyingbo has the game I'm predicting for him, which is two sacks and four tackles-for-loss.
Odeyingbo has a sack in each of his last three games, and Green Bay's horrendous offensive line should give him plenty of opportunities to feast, especially on snaps when he lines up in the interior.
4. The offensive line gives up zero sacks
I almost didn't include this prediction because it feels really obvious to me. The Bears still have an elite offensive line even after the shocking retirement of Drew Dalman and being without Ozzy Trapilo to start the year. The fact is that Darnell Wright is the best right tackle in the NFL, and his linemates are all playing at a Pro Bowl caliber. Against a feeble pass rush in Green Bay, I'm predicting that they won't surrender a single sack.
In my Week 5 keys to victory, I concluded that Chicago's superiority in the trenches would win this game, and the proof of this will be in the postgame laundry situation. Jordan Love should end the game with plenty of grass stains on the back of jersey while Tyson Bagent's glistening white jersey can be hung right back up in his locker at Halas Hall.
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