Portugal divided over André Ventura’s capabilities

The Intercampus poll, conducted at the request of Negócios, Correio da Manhã, CMTV and Now, reveals that 54.6% of respondents, a sample representative of the Portuguese population, say they would never vote for the leader of Chega. This percentage is slightly higher than the rejection rates for the PS and PSD leaders, José Luís Carneiro and Luís Montenegro, respectively. However, when asked who would make the best prime Minister, the three leaders are virtually tied.

The PS leader has a rejection rate of 25.5%, whilst Luís Montenegro stands at 22.9%. In other words, the percentage of respondents who do not intend to vote for André Ventura is more than double that observed for any other leader of the main parties in the Assembly of the Republic. The question allowed respondents to choose more than one leader; in other words, the sum of the responses could exceed 100%. Almost 10% of respondents did not know or did not wish to answer.

A close-fought race for prime Minister

Although the difficulty of choosing is not reflected in the rejection rates, the question about the best qualities for a head of government marks a turning point. For now, if the Portuguese were called to the polls, the PS would get the most votes, according to the survey results. José Luís Carneiro garners 29.4% of respondents, compared with 28.5% who have confidence in André Ventura’s abilities and 27.5% in Luís Montenegro, the current Prime Minister.

Even so, the statistics show that none of the candidates holds a significant lead.

Ventura as leader of the opposition

Respondents appear divided on the choice of a potential prime minister; however, there is no doubt about who the main opposition leader is. 59.2% of respondents name André Ventura as the main opposition leader, while José Luís Carneiro receives 23.3% of responses. The figures show that although André Ventura’s electoral rejection rate is high, Portuguese respondents still regard him as the main opposition leader.

The interviews took place between 6 and 12 October, according to the Jornal de Negócios, coinciding with the presentation of the draft State Budget for 2027. During this period, the parties took actions that may have improved or worsened their image in the eyes of those interviewed by Intercampus, thereby influencing the results of a regularly updated barometer.