PETALING JAYA: Barisan Nasional (BN) and PAS may still clash in several Melaka constituencies, although BN has said the two sides have settled how to split the seats, according to a political analyst.
International Islamic University Malaysia associate professor Dr Syaza Shukri told theSun that BN chairman Datuk Seri Dr Ahmad Zahid Hamidi’s claim that the allocation was final, and PAS secretary-general Datuk Seri Takiyuddin Hassan’s rebuttal a day later, raise doubts about whether a deal can be reached.
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She said BN is unlikely to give ground on defending all 21 seats it took in the last state election, while PAS seems to want more than the seven allocated for it and its allies.
In her view, Takiyuddin would simply have endorsed Zahid’s statement if PAS were satisfied.
Zahid said on Wednesday that BN would field candidates in 21 of the 28 seats, leaving seven for PAS and its partners.
Takiyuddin said on Thursday that the arrangement was not yet final.
Syaza, who is also a visiting senior fellow at the Iseas-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore, opined that the standoff could produce straight fights between BN and PAS in some seats, with both sides still aiming mainly to defeat Pakatan Harapan (PH).
She likened this to Johor, where the two camps competed against each other while treating PH as the main target. The calculation, she suggested, may be that a BN-PN state government would result either way.
PAS reportedly wants to gain ground in Melaka, where it won no seats in the 2021 state election. That year, BN won 21 of the 28 seats – 18 for Umno, two for MCA and one for MIC. PH took five and Perikatan Nasional (PN) won two, both through Bersatu.
BN then failed to win any of Melaka’s six parliamentary seats in the 2022 general election. PN won three, with PAS taking Tangga Batu and Jasin and Bersatu winning Masjid Tanah, while PH took the other three.
Syaza said an analysis she and her colleagues carried out on the 2022 results, broken down by state seat, indicated PAS would have won the most state seats if voters had behaved the same way in a state election.
The coming poll, she said, will show whether PAS can turn its general election strength into state seats.
BN’s thin winning margins may add to the difficulty. Eleven of its 21 victories in 2021 were by fewer than 1,000 votes – Serkam (79), Pengkalan Batu (131), Duyong (200), Tanjung Bidara (364), Gadek and Durian Tunggal (559 each), Paya Rumput (629), Pantai Kundor (827), Rembia (860), Klebang (876) and Machap Jaya (938). PH was runner-up in eight of these and PN in the other three.
Serkam was BN’s closest win, where Datuk Zaidi Attan beat PAS’s Ahmad Bilal Rahudin by 79 votes.
Rembia could pose a further problem. Datuk Muhammad Jailani Khamis won it for BN in 2021 but later moved to PAS, and BN may want the seat back.
Syaza proposed that the two parties trade seats, with BN yielding some in Melaka in return for PAS stepping aside in states such as Terengganu. She added that BN’s insistence on keeping all 21 seats makes it hard to see the partnership working nationally.
On Oct 15, a PAS source was reported as saying BN had agreed to let Melaka PAS commissioner and Jasin MP Zulkifli Ismail stand in Merlimau, a seat held by Umno Youth chief Datuk Dr Muhamad Akmal Saleh.
Smaller parties will find it hard to win in Melaka, Syaza said. Wawasan could gain from its ties to PAS, while Bersama’s best chances remain in the Klang Valley.
She added that the Oct 20 decision by the Registrar of Societies to deregister PN would not necessarily damage PAS, since the real contest is between Umno and PAS. PN member parties such as Wawasan could stand under the PAS logo, although they may struggle to attract non-Malay voters, which makes working with BN important.
Syaza added she saw no change in the support of Malay voters, which she considers as firmly backing BN and PAS.
Nomination for the Melaka state election is on Oct 31, early voting on Nov 10 and polling on Nov 14.