By Ruth Pollard / Bloomberg Opinion
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un might be the world’s most in-demand leader. US President Donald Trump wants to meet him during a visit to Asia next month. So, too, does South Korean President Lee Jae-myung and Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi. He stood shoulder-to-shoulder with Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) and Russian President Vladimir Putin at a giant military parade in Beijing last year, and has an outstanding invitation to visit Russia.
It is not just the diplomatic isolation that is lifting. With a bridge between North Korea and China officially opening earlier this month, and a new border crossing with Russia launching in last month, Pyongyang has deepened its economic ties with Beijing and Moscow, further blunting the impact of international sanctions.
His involvement in the Ukraine war has given Kim credible alternatives, something North Korean leaders have rarely possessed. The billions of dollars in arms sales and military support to Moscow have markedly improved his economic position and arguably increased his value to Beijing. That means Washington’s most powerful bargaining chip — sanctions relief — is worth far less than it once was.
Kim has plenty of reasons to breathe easier these days. When Trump and Xi met in Washington last month, neither mentioned North Korea’s denuclearization: Beijing has been avoiding the term for some time, while the US used it as recently as May. Still, it is likely not enough to convince Kim that another meeting with Trump is worth his time, particularly given that their last summit in Vietnam in 2019 ended badly.
While the overtures from the US president have been mostly met with silence, the regime has loudly rejected Lee’s call for talks aimed at formally ending the state of war between the two Koreas and halting Pyongyang’s nuclear buildup. It is similarly disparaging about Takaichi’s proposal for a summit with Kim to resolve the issue of North Korea’s abduction of Japanese nationals.
They are not wrong to want contact. Facing a deteriorating security landscape — with North Korea’s expanding nuclear arsenal and rapidly improving conventional capabilities at its center — it is clear that isolation is not going to keep the peace on the peninsula. Yet Kim can afford to be selective about who he grants an audience. As Bloomberg reported, his family-run dictatorship has amassed as much as US$22 billion in foreign revenue from 2022 to last year.
The shift in the balance of power has helped Kim reposition himself on the international stage — not as a pariah, but as a member of a powerful group of anti-Western nations. The relationships he is cultivating are producing immediate and tangible results, Stimson Center senior fellow and a North Korea specialist Jenny Town said. And that means there is no impetus for him to deal with states such as the US or Japan that make what he considers unreasonable demands, she said.
That raises a difficult question for global powers. If the goal of talking to Kim is no longer denuclearization, then what is the strategy? Perhaps the reestablishment of communication channels and risk reduction is a more realistic outcome of any meeting with Pyongyang right now. The nuclear issue could be dealt with at a later date, but that prospect grows weaker with every move Trump makes, from cutting short joint military exercises with South Korea to praising Kim and acknowledging his nuclear arsenal. The priority should be on stabilizing the region and reducing the risk of war, and that means bolstering alliances between the US, South Korea and Japan, not undermining them.
Moscow’s war has been a boon for Kim way beyond the economic benefit. Thousands of North Korean troops have deployed to support Russian operations against Ukraine, along with engineers, mine-clearance personnel and drone operators. Those who return home come with invaluable combat experience and technical knowhow on modern warfare. It is helping Pyongyang upgrade its defense capabilities, and there is mounting evidence of more sophisticated technology transfer.
In the last month alone, North Korea has tested two types of submarine-launched strategic cruise missiles, and fired multiple ballistic missiles off its east coast. However, beyond the showy displays of military might, it is the smaller conflicts that have Korea watchers worried about the prospect of an accidental escalation on the peninsula. The north and south are locked in a dispute over landmine blasts along the border that wounded South Korean soldiers last month. It is a dangerous flashpoint that signals there would be more of these flare-ups.
The problem is that Kim is harder to pressure and stronger than ever — and it is not clear what it would take to draw him back into talks.
Ruth Pollard is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering Asia politics and policy. She previously covered South and Southeast Asia on the Bloomberg government team and was Middle East Correspondent for The Sydney Morning Herald. This column reflects the personal views of the author and does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.