Virginia Tech beat Georgia Tech 34–24 on Saturday. By Monday morning, the five national bowl projections I track had the Hokies in five different bowls.
Two moved them up. One moved them down. Another traded El Paso for Charlotte, and the fifth didn’t move at all.
Tech (5–2, 2–2 ACC) snapped a two-game skid in which both losses came on the final play. It needs one win in its last five games to go bowling.
Where the board sits
ESPN’s Mark Schlabach moved the Hokies from the Pinstripe Bowl to the Gator Bowl in Jacksonville on Dec. 30, against LSU. That’s where the ACC generally sends its second team outside the College Football Playoff.
Sports Illustrated’s Bryan Fischer has them a rung higher still. He moved them from the Holiday Bowl to the Pop-Tarts Bowl in Orlando on Dec. 29 against Oklahoma State, the ACC’s top pick outside the Playoff.
Brad Crawford of CBS Sports went the other way, from the Duke’s Mayo Bowl against Penn State to the Pinstripe Bowl at Yankee Stadium on Dec. 26 against Northwestern. That’s about Penn State, not Tech. Crawford calls eight wins realistic for the Hokies, but the Nittany Lions lost at Michigan on Saturday and fell to 3–4.
ESPN’s Kyle Bonagura picked up the matchup. He moved Tech out of the Sun Bowl and into Charlotte on Dec. 26, against the same Penn State team he had there a week ago.
Steven Lassan of Athlon Sports has Virginia Tech in the Sun Bowl in El Paso on Dec. 31 against Arizona for the third straight week.
A week ago, the five boards had the Hokies in four bowls.
The board agrees on something more useful: where Tech’s next two opponents sit. Four of the five have Clemson in the Sun Bowl, the seat I’ve had the Hokies in. Athlon has the Tigers in the Gator instead. Four of the five also have SMU in the Pop-Tarts Bowl, where Fischer has Tech.
The Hokies play Clemson on Saturday and SMU on Nov. 6. They don’t need help from the rest of the league. They play the teams holding their seats.
What Saturday actually told us
Ethan Grunkemeyer found Que’Sean Brown for a 60-yard touchdown on the game’s third play. Brown finished with a career-high 182 receiving yards, 180 of them before halftime. Grunkemeyer threw for 250 yards and three touchdowns without an interception and ran for another score. Tech led 24–3 at the break.
Then the second half happened again. Georgia Tech scored twice in the first three minutes of the third quarter to make it 24–17. The Hokies outgained the Yellow Jackets 307–189 before halftime and were outgained 239–102 after it. That’s three straight weeks of losing the second half: 14–9 to Pitt, 15–6 to Cal and 21–10 to Georgia Tech.
So why did this one end differently? Tech lost to Pitt and Cal without a takeaway, and John Love missed a kick in both games. On Saturday, both of those flipped.
Georgia Tech running back Trelain Maddox fumbled on the opening possession, and safety Quentin Reddish intercepted Alberto Mendoza. Tech came in at minus-6 in turnover margin and outscored Georgia Tech 10–3 off the two takeaways. Love, who had missed three straight, hit from 39 and 24 yards. The second one made it 34–17 in the fourth quarter.
The rest of the league filled in the picture. Miami beat Florida State 43–35 in double overtime and is No. 1 in the AP poll for the first time since 2002. All five boards have the Hurricanes in the Playoff, which opens the Pop-Tarts seat. SMU beat Virginia 23–13 to get to 5–1 and No. 23. Clemson shut out Charleston Southern 37–0.
Record prediction: 8–4
Saturday banked one of the three wins I’ve been counting. The other two are at Lane Stadium against Stanford on Nov. 14 and Virginia on Nov. 28. Win both and it’s seven.
The eighth has to come on the road: at Clemson on Saturday at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN, or at SMU on Friday, Nov. 6. A loss at No. 1 Miami on Nov. 21 has been in the math all along.
I still lean Clemson, but not comfortably. Virginia Tech hasn’t beaten the Tigers since 2007, and Saturday is Clemson’s Homecoming, at night. SMU is the harder ask: ranked, 5–1 and at home.
If the second-half trend holds, it won’t matter which one I pick.
My bowl projection: Sun Bowl
The pick holds. I wrote last week that 8–4 meant El Paso, and the record prediction didn’t change, even if Lassan is now the only board with the Hokies there.
Four of the five have Clemson in the Sun Bowl. Beat the Tigers, and Tech has the better claim to that seat. Lose, and the Hokies are probably looking at New York or Boston.
Don’t rule out Charlotte, either. Three boards have Penn State in the Mayo Bowl, and Bonagura already has the Hokies there. Penn State needs three wins in its last five to make it happen.
The pick: Sun Bowl, Dec. 31. Ceiling at 9–3 is the Gator Bowl, where Schlabach already has them. Floor at 7–5 is the Pinstripe, where Crawford has them, or the Fenway.
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