Eight stocks have emerged as brokers’ leading picks for October, with Nigerian Breweries receiving the strongest support among the six investment firms reviewed by Nairametrics.
The brewer secured five Buy or Upside recommendations, while Access Holdings, ETI, GTCO, BUA Cement, MTN Nigeria, Dangote Sugar and Aradel received four positive ratings each.
This represents a much shorter consensus list than in late September, when 14 stocks attracted at least four positive recommendations.
UBA, FCMB, Zenith Bank, NASCON, and AIICO were among the stocks that failed to retain their earlier positions.
All eight stocks still have prices below the levels brokers believe they could reach. However, some now appear more attractive than they did in late September because their share prices have fallen.
- Aradel recorded the biggest change. Its share price dropped from N1,550 to N1,377, creating more room for gains if it reaches the brokers’ average target. The expected return consequently increased from 67.1% to 85.7%.
- The same happened with MTN Nigeria. Its share price fell from N890 to N840, raising the possible return from 39.8% to 44.6%. Nigerian Breweries and Dangote Sugar also offered slightly more room for gains than they did in September.
ETI, Access Holdings and GTCO still offered gains based on the brokers’ targets, but slightly less than in the previous review. BUA Cement’s expected return remained unchanged.
The review covers recommendations issued on October 12 and 13 by Cowry Asset Management, Morgan Capital Securities, Blue Marina Research, Arthur Steven Asset Management, First Securities Brokers and Futureview Financial Services.
Only stocks rated Buy or Upside were counted as positive recommendations.
Nigerian Breweries moves ahead
Nigerian Breweries received positive recommendations from five firms; the highest number recorded by any stock in the October review.
- The brokers’ targets ranged from N88.94 to N107.61. Their average target of N97.51 suggests a possible gain of 30.7% from the October 9 price of N74.60.
The recommendations reflect confidence in the brewer’s recovery, including improved pricing and profit margins.
- Nigerian Breweries moved from an accumulated loss of N72.17bn at the end of 2025 to positive retained earnings of N13.65 billion by June 2026.
- It also repaid its remaining N59.71bn in bank borrowings, leaving the company with no outstanding loans and N74.63bn in cash. Cash generated from operations rose sharply from N10.50bn to N126.98bn.
However, weak consumer spending, higher production costs and foreign-exchange pressures remain important risks.
Banks retain strong representation
Access Holdings, ETI and GTCO each received four positive recommendations.
- Access Holdings had an average target of N42.91, indicating a potential gain of 45.5% from N29.50.
- ETI recorded the highest expected return, with an average target of N153.59 compared with its N67 market price. This implies an upside of 129.2%, although the figure was lifted considerably by Arthur Steven’s much higher target of N299.29.
- GTCO’s average target of N159.95 represents a potential upside of 21.6% from N131.50. Unlike the four firms recommending the stock, Arthur Steven rated GTCO Sell and placed its target at N79.32.
UBA and FCMB, which had four positive recommendations in September, received three each in the latest review. This does not necessarily mean every missing broker downgraded them, as some firms released shorter recommendation lists in October.
BUA Cement, MTN and Aradel maintain support
BUA Cement retained four positive recommendations and an average target of N391.50. This represents a possible appreciation of 31.8% from N297. Arthur Steven, however, rated the stock Hold.
- MTN Nigeria also received four positive ratings. Its average target of N1,214.83 implies a potential upside of 44.6% from N840.
- Aradel’s four positive targets produced an average of N2,557.09, compared with its market price of N1,377. This indicates possible appreciation of 85.7%, the second highest on the list.
The targets for MTN and Aradel varied widely, showing that brokers generally expect their prices to rise but disagree on how far they could go.
Dangote Sugar stays among leading picks
Dangote Sugar received positive recommendations from Blue Marina, Arthur Steven, First Securities, and Futureview.
- Their targets ranged from N87.88 to N102, producing an average of N95.21. This represents a possible appreciation of 36% from N70.
Compared with ETI, MTN and Aradel, the brokers were more closely aligned with Dangote Sugar’s value.
Zenith, NASCON and AIICO lose support
Zenith Bank recorded one of the biggest changes from the late-September review, as its positive recommendations fell from four to two.
- Cowry and First Securities remain positive. First Securities places Zenith’s fair value at N149.37, representing a possible price gain of 10.9% from N134.70. When its expected dividend is included, the broker estimates a total return of 25.4%.
- Futureview’s position changed mainly because Zenith’s share price increased. Its target remained unchanged at N147.88, but the stock rose from N128.40 in September to N134.70 in October. This reduced the possible gain from 15.2% to 9.8%, prompting Futureview to change its recommendation from Buy to Hold.
- Arthur Steven takes a more negative position, rating Zenith Sell with a target of N102, which is about 24% below the October reference price. Blue Marina, meanwhile, moved the stock from Buy to Under Review and withdrew its previous N157.20 target. This means its change cannot be attributed solely to the share price increase.
- NASCON’s loss of support was more clearly driven by its rising share price. The stock increased by 18.1%, from N160 in September to N188.90 in October, while First Securities retained its N212.11 fair value. As a result, the possible price gain narrowed from 32.6% to 12.3%, leading the broker to move NASCON from Upside to Neutral.
- Blue Marina and Futureview remain positive on NASCON, with respective targets of N286.71 and N235.50. Their recommendations show that brokers still disagree over how much further the stock can rise.
- AIICO followed a similar pattern. Its price increased from N3.77 to N4.14, while Blue Marina’s target remained unchanged at N4.86. This reduced the expected price gain from 28.9% to 17.4%, prompting the broker to move the stock from Buy to Hold.
Futureview remains positive on AIICO with a target of N5.10, while Arthur Steven recommends Buy with a higher target of N6.62.
What investors should take away
Nigerian Breweries presents the strongest case, combining broad broker support with improving cash flow, lower debt and a return to positive retained earnings.
- Access Holdings, BUA Cement and Dangote Sugar have more closely aligned targets, while the wide target ranges for ETI, MTN Nigeria and Aradel require greater caution.
Investors should also pay attention to entry prices. The changes in Zenith Bank, NASCON, and AIICO show that a good stock can lose its Buy rating after its price rises and reduces the opportunity for further gains.
Broker recommendations should therefore be considered alongside earnings, cash flow, debt, and valuation.