Thailand’s cold season is expected to begin next week, around a week later than usual, with temperatures forecast to be warmer than normal overall, according to the Thai Meteorological Department (TMD).
In its seasonal outlook released on October 15, the department said temperatures across Thailand were expected to fall around the third week of October. The cold season is forecast to continue until around mid-February 2027.
Average minimum temperatures are expected to range from 22 to 23 degrees Celsius, approximately two degrees above normal. However, some northern and northeastern areas could experience much colder conditions.
The upper North and upper Northeast may see minimum temperatures of 10 to 12 degrees Celsius. Bangkok is forecast to experience lows of 19 to 21 degrees, while surrounding provinces could see temperatures of 18 to 20 degrees.
The coldest period is expected from late December to early February. Mountain summits, peaks and ridges may experience cold to very cold conditions, with frost possible in some areas.
The TMD attributed the warmer outlook to El Niño, which it expects to strengthen towards the end of this year and continue into early 2027, potentially pushing temperatures above normal.
Southern Thailand faces a different concern, with the department warning of possible heavy rainfall along the Gulf coast from Chumphon southwards during November and December. The forecast includes risks of flash floods, water runoff and rivers overflowing their banks.
Waves in the Gulf could reach two to four metres, while storm surges of four to five metres are possible in some locations, according to the outlook.
In January and February, the upper part of Thailand may experience thunderstorms, squalls and hail in some areas.
The department said the seasonal outlook was based on statistical data and climate models. It plans to update the forecast during the final week of October.
Despite expectations of cooler weather towards the end of the year, the TMD issued a separate warning on October 18 for heavy to very heavy rain across parts of Thailand between October 18 and 25.
From October 18 to 20, persistent rainfall was forecast in the South and East, with heavy to very heavy rain possible in some areas.
Rainfall is expected to increase from October 21 to 25 across the lower Northeast, Central Thailand, including Bangkok and its metropolitan area, the East and the upper South. Some locations may experience heavy to very heavy rain accompanied by occasional gusty winds.
The short-term rainfall warning is separate from the department’s longer-range cold-season outlook, and conditions may change as updated forecasts are released.
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