Israel's Palestinian leaders are urging the Arab community to vote in the October 27 election, hoping that a high turnout could nudge Israel's complex coalition arithmetic in favor of an anti-Netanyahu bloc led by Yashar chairperson Gadi Eisenkot.
"We can ensure the formation of a new government of change," Ra’am head Mansour Abbas told Reuters in his office in Nazareth, Israel's most populous Arab city.
Abbas and other Arab leaders face one big obstacle to their goal of playing a role in any future administration without Netanyahu. Eisenkot has so far ruled out forming a government with the Arab parties that most Palestinian Israelis will vote for, citing a lack of shared values.
But Abbas thinks there will be room to maneuver, perhaps after the vote, largely because of the cold, hard realities of electoral maths.
Recent polls suggest Eisenkot's patchwork bloc of centrist, right- and left-wing parties will get the most votes, but fall short of a majority, and will need Arab support, either as coalition partners or from outside, to prop up a minority government.
"We want to replace the right-wing government... to end the wars and these policies, to stop the expansion of settlements and to address the failure to stop settler attacks," Abbas said.
"We also want a government that brings shared security and peace for Palestinians and Israelis."
For now, Eisenkot is sticking to his position.
“I do not see an Arab party that accepts my principles,” Eisenkot said in a recent interview with The Jerusalem Post, citing, among other issues, their refusal to label Hamas a terrorist organization.
If no bloc forms a workable government, it could lead to a period of political deadlock and then fresh elections in 2027, with Netanyahu left in charge in the meantime.
But Netanyahu, for one, seems to take the threat of some sort of Eisenkot-Arab alliance seriously, or at least sees it as an opportunity to rile up his base. His campaign has used doctored images and AI-generated videos to depict his rivals embracing Arab leaders.
One AI-generated video, released over the summer, showed Eisenkot running through a meadow into the outstretched arms of Abbas.
Abbas' own career shows that such alliances are possible. In 2021 he became the first Arab Muslim to join an Israeli coalition as a minister, in a government led by Naftali Bennett, now a right-wing member of Eisenkot's bloc.
That government collapsed after 18 months, partly over disagreements between the two men on the West Bank.
This time round, Abbas said he could paper over those differences. To win over Jewish parties, he has taken the unprecedented step of giving the number two spot on his slate to a Jewish former police official, Yoav Segalovitz.
"It sends a message of partnership with the Jewish community and with Jewish citizens," Abbas said.
Arab's frustrated with demonization by Israeli Right, crime
The upcoming election will be Israel’s first since the October 7 massacre, and is being viewed as a referendum on the leadership of Netanyahu, Israel's longest-serving leader.
Abbas' party is projected to win five seats, with a further eight going to the Joint List, a coalition of three Arab parties.
Ahead of the vote, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich proposed a plan to "Judaize" areas around Nazareth in the north and in southern Israel where most Arabs live, describing it as similar to settler expansionism in the West Bank.
Party organizers in Nazareth are hoping to capitalize on Arab anger with Netanyahu, Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, as well as frustration with rising crime in their communities.
Last week, canvassers with Abbas' party handed out flyers near Nazareth's massive Church of the Annunciation.
"There is a greater need this time than ever before to go out and vote in large numbers," said one of the people they approached, 74-year-old Gassan Bsoul. "The danger is greater than in the past," he added.
Arab turnout expected to be high
Israeli pollsters expect Arab voter turnout to be higher than in the 2022 and 2020 elections. The Stat-Net Research Institute, based in an Arab Druze town near Haifa, projects turnout at 63%, up from 56% in 2022.
While Abbas has tried to position his party to potentially join government, leaders of the Joint List have said they could wield just as much influence by staying in opposition.
Ahmad Tibi, a Joint List leader, said his group was ready to form "a preventive block to support [a government] from the outside."
He said the Joint List would join an Eisenkot-led government in voting "to establish an official commission of inquiry into October 7," a stated priority of the former military chief and his partners.
"We are placing as our top priority getting rid of the extreme right-wing government of Netanyahu, Smotrich and Ben-Gvir," Tibi said.
Keshet Neev and Shir Perets contributed to this report.