The closest thing to a guarantee of a spacious holiday flight is to be in the air on Thanksgiving, Christmas, or New Year’s Day. “Travel on the holidays themselves when no one else wants to be on a plane,” says Julian Kheel, founder and CEO of the award-booking platform Points Path.
Unfortunately, that isn’t an option for most people due to family commitments or work schedules. The next best move — price-wise at least, because there’s no getting around the crowds — is buying your ticket in the right booking window.
Google analyzed five years of its own flight data and found Thanksgiving fares bottom out around 34 days before departure and Christmas fares around 56, with usable ranges of 57 to 21 days and 67 to 33 days. Hopper notes that domestic round-trips are averaging $402 for Thanksgiving, up 31 percent from last year, and $452 for Christmas, up 23 percent.
There’s data, and then there’s lived-in expertise.
“While Google’s numbers are helpful in knowing when you should be shopping, they’re just averages, not cliffs,” Kheel says. “Booking on day 30 instead of day 34 probably won’t cost you substantially more, and sometimes it could even be less. But you’ll have a much bigger travel bill if you wait until it’s too late in the game. Once you’re in the final two weeks before the holidays, the cheap seats will definitely be gone, and you’ll be stuck with a pricey flight.”
Hopper’s data points the same direction: leave on the Monday or Tuesday before Thanksgiving instead of the Wednesday, skip the Sunday return, and avoid December 18 through 20 and December 27.
Points won’t rescue a late booking either, because points move with cash prices.
“Our data at Points Path shows that as cash prices go up during the holidays, so do points prices,” Kheel says. “That means you aren’t likely to get amazing value for your miles if you use them for a Thanksgiving or Christmas flight. However, if using your miles means keeping extra cash in your wallet, it may still be worth doing. While every airline and bank program is different, I generally wouldn’t advise using your rewards if you’re getting less than 1.4 cents per point for flexible bank points like Chase or Amex, and about 1.1 or 1.2 cents for airline miles.”
How weather will impact holiday flights this year
Connecting hubs and airports to be cautious about for holiday travel with medium to frequent delays, according to AccuWeather predictions
- San Francisco
- Salt Lake City
- Denver
- Atlanta
- New Orleans
- Charlotte
Cities where holiday travel may see occasional issues
- Los Angeles
- Phoenix
- Dallas
- Houston
- Orlando
- Portland
- Seattle
- Washington
- Philadelphia
We’re facing an El Niño winter, with conditions to hold at least through spring. Paul Pastelok, AccuWeather’s lead long-range forecaster and a senior meteorologist, expects that to bring an active storm track into the West Coast and a subtropical track that stalls cool fronts along the Gulf Coast and Southeast, where they develop into heavy rain and thunderstorms.
“El Niño will be a strong driver but other factors across the northern Pacific could produce an active storm track not just on the southern most West Coast late November and December,” Pastelok says. “But there can be atmospheric rivers north along the coast during this period. All of the West Coast can get hit during the holiday season. There can be a more shift southward toward January and February.”
Pastelok flags San Francisco, Salt Lake City, Denver, Atlanta, New Orleans, and Charlotte as the hubs he’d be most cautious about routing through in late November and December, with Los Angeles, Phoenix, Dallas, Houston, Orlando, Portland, Seattle, Washington, and Philadelphia a tier below. AccuWeather’s winter forecast projects Denver to get 10 to 18 days with at least two inches of snow against an average of nine, and Atlanta is forecast for 135 percent of average precipitation.
“We can provide weather trends and pattern ideas from 3-6 weeks out in advance,” Pastelok says. “But for specific day to day, for switching airlines, confidence will grow within 1-2 weeks out.”
AccuWeather has a 30-day email that has tips on extreme weather forecasts that look ahead at the next four-to-five weeks. The company’s official holiday forecast is usually issued three-to-four weeks ahead of the holidays for Thanksgiving and Christmas.
“One-to-two weeks is stronger confidence, but confidence levels ease back farther out but still pretty good,” Pastelok says.
There’s nothing you can do about the weather. You can, however, try to maximize your savings on price.
“Flexibility is always the key to getting a better price, and the more flexible you can be, the better,” Kheel says. “But if I could only pick one flexibility lever, it would be moving your travel dates. Holiday pricing is all about demand, and if you can fly on a day when everyone else isn’t, you’ll have cheaper options.” 