Early voting data from Ohio could be a stark warning for GOP candidate and incumbent Republican Senator Jon Husted.
Husted faces a challenge from former Senator Sherrod Brown in a special election to finish the term for which Vice President JD Vance was elected in 2022.
With the campaign season in its final weeks, a new CNN analysis shows that after the first few days of early voting, affiliated Democrats make up larger shares of pre-election voters than in the 2024 presidential election. Even in Republican parts of the state.
Historically, the party in the White House loses seats in the midterms when the president is unpopular. All 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats are up for election in November, along with key gubernatorial races.
Democrats need 17 seats to win the Senate, while Republicans need 20. Republicans currently hold a slim majority in the House, 219 to 213, and need 218 seats to take control.
The midterms could alter the course of Trump’s presidency and reshape how the administration proceeds with its legislative priorities if Republicans lose their majority in either chamber.
What To Know About Early Voting Data
In 2024, by this time, Republicans led Democrats by 30 percentage points in counties that voted for President Donald Trump by 20 points or more, according to CNN, which cited data from the Ohio Secretary of State.
Now, that gap has shrunk to only 5 points.
In other counties, voters have also shifted.
Counties that voted most strongly for former Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024 are now about 25 points more Democratic, CNN reports.
The data could signal a positive environment for Democrats and a warning sign for the GOP, with the midterm elections now only weeks away.
However, it is still early, and Ohio is only at about 11 percent of its total early voting turnout from 2022, per CNN.
Early voting does not predict voting outcomes or intentions, and you cannot extrapolate a candidate from early eagerness to head to the polls.
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Newsweek emailed the Brown and Husted campaigns for comment.
Recent polls show a continued downward slide in Trump’s national approval, which has, in turn, fueled Democratic hopes of winning back voters.
Sherrod Brown vs. Jon Husted: What The Latest Polls Say
The latest polls show a tight race, with Brown leading.
The current RealClearPolitics average puts Brown 3.1 points ahead at 47.3 to Husted’s 44.2.
CNN had Brown six points ahead, 49 to 43, while YouGov had Brown four points ahead, 49 to 45.
Other polls showed slimmer averages: Quantus Insights put Brown one point ahead, 48 to 47, while co/efficient had Husted leading by a point, 46 to 45.
Prediction markets paint a different picture.
On both Polymarket and Kalshi, Brown leads, but the race is far less close than the polls currently show.
Polymarket puts Brown at 62 percent to Husted’s 40 percent, while Kalshi has Brown at 60 percent to Husted’s 40 percent.
The Latest Developments in the Ohio Senate Race
Husted and Brown continue their campaigns and have shared multiple social media posts as they appeal to Ohioans and push their policy priorities.
On Sunday, October 11, Husted shared a link to a Spectrum News article and wrote: “Whether it’s lowering energy costs, requiring simple photo ID to vote, or banning Members of Congress from trading stocks, Democrats voted NO—thwarting the will of the American people.”
He then shared a message wishing a Happy Columbus Day, writing “In 1492, Christopher Columbus set sail and discovered land that would become the greatest nation in the world,” and encouraging people to “Have a safe and fun long weekend with family and friends.”
Meanwhile, Brown shared a picture of himself at a campaign event where he wrote, “Hardworking folks in Youngstown know the system is rigged and they’re ready to fight back. That’s why, in 23 days, we’re going to win.”
He then shared a post that directly referenced the war in Iran. “I’ll vote to end the war the first chance I get,” Brown wrote.
Husted has previously called for the conflict to end quickly while continuing to oppose Democratic efforts to restrict the administration’s military authority.
Why The Ohio Senate Election Matters in the 2026 Midterms
Ohio could help to determine control of the Senate and has become one of the most closely watched states of the 2026 midterms.
Both the Senate and gubernatorial races are hanging close.
Back in 2024, Trump won Ohio by 11 points and carried it by 8 points in 2016 and 2020, respectively.
But the Buckeye State backed former President Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012.
And the economy could be pivotal for voters in the midterms and, in turn, turn the state into a competitive ground once again.
Forty-nine percent of Ohio voters view the economy as their top issue, and 76 percent believe Trump’s policies have increased the cost of living, as per polling from CNN.
Discontent over the war in Iran could also be key for voters, as concerns over affordability continue and the conflict drives high gas prices in the state.
Key Midterm Election Dates in Ohio
Military and overseas absentee voting began September 18; Voter registration deadline was October 5. Early in-person voting and absentee ballots for domestic voters began being mailed on October 6.
Upcoming Dates:
- October 27 is the deadline to request an absentee ballot by mail. The applications must be received by the county board of elections by 8:30 p.m.
- November 1 is the last day of in-person voting, from 1 to 5 p.m.
- November 3 is election day. Polls will be open from 6:30 a.m. to 7:30 p.m. Non-military absentee ballots must be received by 7:30 p.m.
- November 7 is the deadline for military and overseas absentee ballots to be received and counted.
Newsweek’s reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story. Learn more about Martyn here. Contact Newsweek editors on this story: John Fitzpatrick and Gray R. Thomas