BYU Can't Possibly Be Good Enough to Win a National Championship...Can it?

Admit it. You know you thought it. When four of the top seven teams lost before BYU ever kicked off on Saturday, you asked yourself the question: “What if BYU wins today? How high would they go?” Now that the LES magic came through and BYU finds itself ranked in the top two for the first time in 40 years, everyone is left grappling with an unsettling question. Could BYU really be national championship good this season? Let's see what the numbers say.

What the AP Voters Say

Last week we wrote that there are two camps on BYU: not particularly impressive but finds ways to win games, or this is a team that is much better than its scoring margin. After BYU’s massive win over Notre Dame, the camps have shrunk to is BYU number the no. 1 team in the country or no. 2? BYU landed at number 2, but were a mere 22 voting points away from achieving its first no. 1 ranking since 1984. We will discuss whether that's fair in a moment, but BYU achieving its first top five ranking is a massive achievement for this program.

Historically, there has been a glass ceiling set on how high BYU could climb. BYU has ranked as high as 7th 4 times and as high as 8th 5 times. Sunday became just the 4th time BYU has ever found itself in the top 5, joining 1984, 1990, and 1996. Not bad company. BYU finally breaking through that top 5 threshold signals a graduation from token top 10 team no one takes seriously to legitimate national contender. Don’t believe me? Just count the votes. The combined gap between the top 3 and #4 (302 point) is bigger than the gap between #4 and #11. Translation: after a chaotic weekend where five of the top seven teams lost, there is a clear top three that’s separated itself from the pack, and BYU is one of them.

What the predictive metrics say

Definition: Predictive metrics measure absolute strength of a team relative to the average team. Similar ratings are used by sports books to generate betting spreads.

SP+: 9

FPI: 14

FEI: 10

Average: 11 (Last week: 12.6)

BYU inexplicably did not move in ESPN's FPI despite FPI predicting a two-score win for Notre Dame last week, but BYU jumped 4 spots in FEI and into the SP+ top 10. That might not sound like much given BYU’s resume, but this marks the first time BYU as been a top 10 power rated team since 2020. It’s taken an extended run, but the computers are starting to come around on BYU just being an elite level football team. Even coming into the season as a playoff contender, BYU is the 8th largest riser in SP+ in the Power 4, jumping 12 spots from 21st to 9th. As of today, BYU would be favored against all but 8 teams, and are within a touchdown on a neutral field to the rest. We have already seen BYU beat one of those teams, so why not BYU?

The other element I find most interesting is how BYU’s win over Notre Dame affects the Big 12 as a whole. Before the season, the average Big 12 and ACC team were viewed as identical, and would be nearly touchdown underdogs to the average Big Ten team and a nine-point underdog to the average SEC team. Through 6 weeks, the Big 12 has rapidly closed the gap with the top 2 leagues and are roughly equal with the Big Ten and a field goal underdog with the SEC. In fact, the Big 12 is closer to the SEC than the ACC. Everyone underrated the Big 12 this year. 14 of the 16 teams in the league have upgraded their profile, the most of any league in America. At the top of the leagues, the Big 12 has more power rated top 10 teams (3) than the Big Ten (2) and equal with the SEC. Can anyone say three-bid Big 12?

What do the resume-based metrics say?

Definition: Resume metrics are a measure of how your team performs against it’s schedule relative to how an average top 25 power rated team would be expected to perform against that schedule. Strength of schedule measures the quality of opponents. Strength of record measures how you perform against those opponents.

SP+: 6

FPI (SOR): 1

FEI: 1

Average: 2.7 (Last week: 9.6)

Looking at the resumes of the top teams, there is no question that BYU should be the number one team in the country. BYU has the best strength of record by both FPI and FEI, and only lags behind in SP+ because of margin of victory. Even so, BYU’s win over Notre Dame is the third best win in the country and their SP+ strength of schedule (21) is better than half the SEC and 13 Big Ten teams. BYU now boasts wins over two top 15 power rated teams in Notre Dame (4), Arizona (15), and a top 35 road win against TCU (31). BYU is both good and battle tested in a way it hasn’t been the last two years.

Two years ago, BYU had the win over a playoff team, but lacked the dominance and strength of schedule to get any kind of playoff consideration at 10-2. Last season, BYU had the strength of schedule, but lacked that true marquee win to overcome two blowout losses to a top five team. This season BYU has both, and as long as they don’t stub their toe along the way against a team like UCF, BYU is safely in the playoff even with a loss or two. As of today, BYU has the 6th best odds to make the playoff and the 9th best odds to win it all. You’d be lying if you thought BYU would ever be here 10 years ago.

Conclusion

As someone born after 1995, its hard to wrap my head around the idea of BYU being ranked in the top two. In the words of the Joker, “I am a dog chasing cars. I have no idea what I would do if I caught one”. In my lifetime, I have been conscious for 10, 10-win seasons and have seen BYU ranked in the top 10 in 7 of them, but never higher than 7th. Never in my wildest imagination did I think I would see a day that BYU was truly good enough to win a national championship in the modern landscape. But today is that day. BYU just beat the team with the 3rd best odds to win the national championship and did it in a way that was sustainable. They matched up man for man with one of the best rosters in the country and won without their best offensive player or starting right tackle. Once BYU gets its full complement of pieces by season's end. this is definitely a team that can make a run.

Perhaps you are like me and have been beaten down into believing it’s impossible for a school like BYU to ever contend for a title with so many things fighting against them. BYU’s performance, ranking, and metrics tell you that maybe you should dream bigger.