Pagasa Visayas forecast that a very strong El Niño peaking before late 2026 could trigger drought in Cebu by early 2027, potentially surpassing previous major El Niño events.
Vice Gov. Glenn Soco stated the Provincial Board is prepared to declare a state of emergency to allocate local resources, while Dost 7 maps farmland to aid vulnerable agricultural communities.
Severe rainfall deficits of 21 to 60 percent through March 2027 threaten local crop yields, fisheries, and household water supplies, prompting implementation of water-security and smart farming measures.
DROUGHT may hit Cebu in early 2027 as a very strong El Niño is forecast to intensify and possibly surpass earlier major events, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) said.
Pagasa Visayas chief Alfredo “Al” Quiblat told a media forum on Tuesday, Oct. 13, 2026, that climate models show the event peaking before the end of 2026. Of 40 models monitored worldwide, 35 to 36 project sea surface temperature anomalies exceeding those of earlier episodes, he said.
The current anomaly is around 2.1 degrees Celsius, in the “very strong” category, Quiblat said. A strong event ranges from 1.5 to two degrees.
The 2015-2016 El Niño peaked at around 2.6 degrees Celsius, while forecasts suggest the present one could reach about three degrees Celsius, making it stronger than the 1982-1983, 1997-1998 and 2015-2016 events.
Dry months ahead
Rainfall in October is forecast to stay near normal, but conditions are expected to worsen from November. Through March 2027, rainfall could be below to way below normal, a deficit of 21 to 60 percent.
In Cebu, dry conditions could develop by the end of December, followed by a dry spell in January. Drought could set in by February and March if the deficit persists and the effects could last until June, Quiblat said.
Meteorological drought is generally declared after five straight months of below-normal rainfall or three of way-below-normal rainfall.
El Niño does not mean rain disappears, Quiblat said, though fewer tropical cyclones typically enter the country.
Meanwhile, Vice Gov. Glenn Soco said the Provincial Board (PB) is ready to declare a state of emergency if needed to make local resources available to the province and its 51 component local government units (LGUs).
The PB has filed several measures for El Niño preparations and the Provincial Government and LGUs are well prepared, he said.
Beyond farms
Reduced rainfall can dry out soil, cut crop production and spread agricultural pests, Quiblat said. Fisheries could see fish kills and poorer water quality, while warmer seas could bring coral bleaching and algal blooms, including red tide. Dwindling rivers could strain household water supply.
The Department of Science and Technology (Dost) 7 is mapping farmland in Cebu and Bohol to identify communities vulnerable to prolonged dry conditions.
Dost 7 Director Tristan Abando said areas with more irrigation sources face lower risk, while elevated farmland with limited water is more exposed. The initial map is based only on soil moisture and the agency is working with the University of the Philippines Los Baños on a fuller model.
The regional office began preparing in 2025 through Project Sarai, which deploys smart farming technologies to LGUs. Its water-security measures include rainwater harvesting, wastewater treatment and reuse, small-scale desalination and mobile water disinfection. It is working with the City Governments of Lapu-Lapu and Mandaue on wastewater reuse and with the Department of Agriculture.
Abando said El Niño measures are targeted for implementation through the first quarter of 2027 and the full program by 2028, depending on climate monitoring and Pagasa updates. / DPC