Geopolitical tensions in South Asia and the Middle East are disrupting raw material supplies and exports for Tajikistan’s industries, forcing some enterprises to cut production and seek alternative transport routes. The leather industry has seen output fall by 65%, Industry and New Technologies Minister Sherali Kabir has said.
Tajikistan, a landlocked country, relies heavily on transit routes through neighboring states to access international markets. Disruptions along routes through Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iran have complicated both imports of industrial raw materials and exports of finished products.
Kabir previously said that shipping goods through Pakistan’s ports of Karachi and Gwadar takes around 7–10 days. Routes through Iran’s Bandar Abbas and Chabahar ports take at least two weeks, while transportation via Georgia’s Poti and Batumi ports or through Russia can take 25–30 days.
Meanwhile, tensions between Afghanistan and Pakistan remain a concern. In early October, relations between Kabul and Islamabad deteriorated again amid mutual accusations and strikes on Afghan territory, the Associated Press (AP) reported.
One of the shortest overland routes from Tajikistan to Pakistani ports passes through Afghanistan, making instability along this corridor particularly significant for Tajik businesses.
Leather production falls by 65%
The leather industry has been among the sectors most affected by transport disruptions. According to Kabir, production has fallen by 65%.
Pakistan was the main buyer of Tajikistan’s leather raw materials, but logistical problems have prevented exporters from shipping their products in previous volumes.
Other industries, including carpet and furniture manufacturing, have also faced difficulties. Tajik producers depend on imported synthetic yarn and other raw materials, some of which come from Iran and Türkiye.
As a result, businesses face problems on both sides of the supply chain: obtaining materials needed for production and delivering finished goods to foreign markets.
Oil processors face raw material shortages
Tajikistan has facilities for processing vegetable oil, but domestic production of oilseeds is insufficient to meet their needs. According to the industry minister, processors rely on imports of oilseeds from Russia and Kazakhstan.
The authorities are considering allowing Tajik farmers to use land in those countries to grow oilseeds, with the harvest subsequently supplied to Tajikistan.
Kabir also said that some existing production facilities were operating below capacity because of high transport costs and restrictions imposed by raw material suppliers.
Mining companies depend on fuel supplies
Fuel shortages and supply disruptions also pose risks to the mining industry. The Ministry of Industry monitors the availability of diesel and other essential resources for major enterprises on a daily basis.
Kabir cited the Zarafshan gold-mining company as an example, noting that its monthly tax and customs payments can reach around 300 million somoni. A production decline of even 10%, he said, could affect state budget revenues.
The minister has previously linked these risks to logistical difficulties and fuel supply problems.
Tajikistan diversifies fuel supplies
Russia remains Tajikistan’s main supplier of petroleum products, but Dushanbe has begun diversifying its sources of fuel imports.
At the end of September, the Ministry of Energy and Water Resources told Asia-Plus that Iran had also begun supplying oil and petroleum products to Tajikistan in late August.
Earlier, Tajikistan and Iran discussed expanding supplies of crude oil, diesel, gasoline and aviation kerosene, as well as establishing special transport arrangements to facilitate deliveries.
However, Iran remains subject to international sanctions. The Diplomat has noted that expanding trade in petroleum products with Iran could expose participating companies and financial institutions to sanctions-related risks.
On October 8, Tajikistan’s Energy and Water Resources Minister Daler Juma met with Carson Relitz Rocker, Chargé d’Affaires at the US Embassy in Dushanbe, to discuss supplies of petroleum products to the domestic market.
The ministry’s statement did not specify whether the talks addressed additional fuel suppliers or resulted in any concrete agreements.
Seeking alternative routes to the sea
Tajikistan is also seeking to improve access to international markets through alternative transport corridors.
In July, representatives of Tajikistan and Iran discussed transport cooperation and the possibility of establishing a Tajik logistics center at Iran’s Chabahar port.
Tajikistan, Afghanistan and Iran later agreed to develop a new road transport corridor. The plans include working out border and customs procedures and conducting a trial shipment.
A railway connection with China is another option under discussion. In an interview with Asia-Plus in early 2026, Tajik political scientist Abdughani Mamadazimov highlighted the need for a direct railway link with China and the possibility of extending the route through Afghanistan and Iran.
In September, Mamadazimov again raised the prospect of a China–Tajikistan–Afghanistan–Iran railway.
Such projects could expand Tajikistan’s access to seaports and international markets, although their implementation would require substantial investment and coordination among the countries involved.
Global prices put additional pressure on industry
Tajik manufacturers are also exposed to fluctuations in international commodity prices.
Kabir cited antimony as an example. According to the minister, in the first half of 2026, the value of antimony production was approximately 3.3 billion somoni lower than it would have been at the global price levels recorded a year earlier.
The Ministry of Industry aims to increase domestic processing of antimony and produce higher-value products, including antimony trioxide and tetroxide.
According to Kabir, negotiations on these plans are under way with companies from Japan, South Korea and other countries.
For Tajikistan, diversifying transport corridors, securing reliable supplies of industrial raw materials and expanding domestic processing remain key challenges as geopolitical instability and international market fluctuations continue to affect its economy.