XRP Price Warning: Leverage Resets as $11.8B in Reserves Loom

CryptoQuant’s reserve data show XRP exchange reserves have climbed to 11.81 billion tokens, a reading in the 99th percentile of the past year. As of now, XRP is trading at the $1.30 price level, while traders watch whether $1.25 holds, as a break below that level would put $1.00 in focus.

CryptoQuant’s aggregate measure places XRP held across exchanges at its highest point in the one-year comparison. Exchange reserves count tokens in wallets controlled by trading platforms, where they can be accessed for trading more readily than assets held in private wallets or cold storage.

For market structure, the direction of flows matters alongside the reserve level. Deposits add to exchange-held supply, while withdrawals to private wallets reduce the quantity immediately available on platforms; upcoming data will show whether the 11.80 billion balance continues to climb or starts to fall.

The distinction is relevant because elevated reserves can weigh on price when holders sell into bids, particularly near a contested support zone. A sustained reserve decline would ease that supply concern, while continued growth would keep the overhang in view.

XRP Leverage Has Reset, but the Supply Overhang Remains a Price Hurdle

Binance XRP open interest stood at approximately $412 million on October 20, down from $453 million on October 17. Across exchanges, XRP open interest reached $1.40 billion, up 2.5% over 24 hours. The recovery suggests derivatives exposure is rebuilding, although Binance positioning remains below its mid-October level.

Long liquidations reached $2 million across exchanges over the latest 24-hour period, compared with $431,000 in short liquidations. Binance funding remained slightly positive at 0.0023% per eight hours, while the average across exchanges turned marginally negative at -0.0004%. XRP traded near $1.29, leaving leveraged traders exposed to further volatility.

The market now faces two competing pressures: renewed aggregate derivatives positioning and elevated exchange-held XRP reserves. The next move may depend on whether renewed derivatives activity coincides with sustained spot selling or a reduction in exchange-held supply.

Demand from institutions and large holders could counterbalance exchange supply. US spot XRP ETFs recorded a $1.84 million weekly net outflow for October 12-16, ending a 13-week run of inflows. The earlier inflow streak is covered in XRP ETF flow data.

$1.25 Support Is the Technical Test for XRP

XRP has rebounded from around $1.25 to trade near $1.30-$1.31, leaving the support zone as the immediate downside reference. we identified increased XRP Ledger on-chain volume near $1.25 as a possible sign of a local bottom, while the technical setup keeps $1.00 in focus if support fails.

The network activity picture is mixed. XRP Ledger payment volume was about 119.5 million XRP on October 17, down 72.3% from the previous day and below the reported 30-day average of roughly 629.3 million XRP.

Above spot, $1.33 is immediate resistance and $1.39 is a key level. Martinez’s broader technical scenario calls for a sustained close above $1.56 to open a path toward $2; his downside scenario puts $1.00 in focus after a break below $1.25. A technical view of XRP support and potential recovery levels also centers on the market’s ability to defend demand zones.

If XRP price holds $1.25 and exchange reserves begin to fall through net outflows, the supply-overhang concern would ease. If the token loses support, $1.00 becomes the next level, with elevated reserves adding to the need for buyers to absorb available supply.

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