Cook Political Report polls find Democrats leading three critical Senate races

Polling numbers from nonpartisan election handicapper Cook Political Report released Wednesday found Democrats leading in three seats critical to retaking the Senate majority in November.

The survey, conducted in concert with Democratic firm New River Strategies and Republican firm GS Strategy Group, placed Democrats ahead in the Texas, Iowa and Ohio Senate races. The party’s candidates also led in two out of the three gubernatorial contests Cook surveyed.

In Texas, Cook found state Rep. James Talarico (D) leading state Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) 49 percent to 44 percent, which was within the poll’s margin of error.

The Texas Senate election has been pushed into the national spotlight, as Democrats see the race as their best chance of winning a U.S. Senate seat in the Lone Star State, something the party has not done in more than 30 years. Talarico has maintained a narrow lead over his GOP challenger since the state’s GOP primary, when President Trump backed Paxton over incumbent Sen. John Cornyn (R).

Cook Editor-in-Chief Amy Walter noted in her analysis that Paxton is “almost twice as unpopular” as the president among Texans.

But while Paxton trailed in the Senate race, the Cook polling showed Texas Gov. Greg Abbott leading state Rep. Gina Hinojosa (D) by a narrow 2 points, also within the error margin. The incumbent governor still leads in most polls but finds himself in a much closer race than it appeared just a few months ago.

Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ), a partner of The Hill, gives Talarico a 55 percent chance to win the Senate race and Abbott a 70 percent likelihood of winning a fourth term in office.

In Iowa, state Rep. Josh Turek (D) led Rep. Ashley Hinson (R) 46 percent to 44 percent. In her analysis of the race, Walter wrote Turek is viewed more favorably than other Democrats in Washington by 28 points, which may explain how he could be ahead in a state Trump won by double digits.

Interestingly, Cook found that Iowa libertarian candidate Thomas Laehn took 8 percent of the vote and could prove decisive in a close race.

The Hawkeye State’s gubernatorial contest is the least competitive in Cook’s poll, which found state Auditor Rob Sand (D) leads Zach Lahn (R) by 11 points. A Sand win would mark a flip for Democrats, as current Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds is a Republican.

DDHQ gives Hinson a 55 percent chance to hold the Senate seat for the GOP, while Sand has a 72 percent chance to claim the Iowa governor’s mansion.

In Cook’s Ohio polling, former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) led Sen. Jon Husted (R) 49 percent to 43 percent in his comeback bid. Democrats led by a similar margin in the Buckeye State’s gubernatorial race, with Amy Acton (D) leading Vivek Ramaswamy (R) 49 percent to 44 percent.

The governor’s race has been the source of controversy after Ramaswamy’s campaign launched an attack ad featuring Acton’s estranged mother. Vice President Vance, a former Ohio senator, rallied for Ramaswamy and Husted in the state Wednesday.

DDHQ gives Brown a 53 percent chance to take the Senate seat and Acton a 60 percent chance to win the governor’s race.

Pollster: Voter discontent ‘truly unprecedented’

Cook’s poll found Democrats are still unpopular in Texas, Iowa and Ohio; the national party’s favorability sits below Trump’s in all three of these states.

Even so, GS Strategies pollster Greg Strimple said voters are choosing them over Republicans because they are dissatisfied with the president.

“Voters are so upset with the lack of leadership on reducing their cost of living, they appear willing to propel Democrats to upset victories in reliably Republican states despite the fact that Democrats are less popular than either President Trump or Republicans,” Strimple said. “The level of voter discontent is truly unprecedented.”

Walter cautioned that while Democrats lead, all three races are close, and most are within the margin of error.

“It’s worth noting that while all three Democrats are leading their Republican opponents in the Senate contests, none have captured a majority of the vote, suggesting that these races are not a done deal,” Walter wrote. “The closing two weeks — and the movement of undecided and third-party voters — will ultimately determine the contest for Senate control.”