According to Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of National Economy Serik Zhumangarin, a decline in oil production, a stronger national currency and slower growth in consumer lending are the three main factors constraining Kazakhstan’s economic growth. At the same time, the country’s GDP growth accelerated to 4.2% between January and September, up from 4.1% in the January-August period.
«This year, the economy is developing amid a number of constraining factors. First is the reduction in oil production and the oil sector’s negative contribution to GDP growth. Over the first nine months of the year, oil output fell by 8.3%, totaling 69.4 million tons. Second, the strengthening of the tenge is exerting a constraining influence on the revenues of export-oriented industries and the state budget,» he said at a cabinet meeting.
The National Bank of Kazakhstan has set the current official exchange rate at 451.31 tenge per dollar, down from 505.53 tenge per dollar on Jan. 1, 2026, and 525.11 tenge per dollar at the beginning of last year. Earlier this month, however, economists from the Eurasian Fund for Stabilization and Development forecast a devaluation of the tenge to 587 tenge per dollar between 2027 and 2029.
Zhumangarin identified the slowdown in consumer lending growth — which is dampening consumer demand — as the third factor. Specifically, the year-on-year growth rate of consumer loans fell from 26.4% in August 2025 to 10.4% in August 2026.
The non-commodity sector drove the 4.2% GDP growth over the first nine months, expanding by 5.4%. Among other sectors, construction, manufacturing, transport services, and trade showed the highest growth rates. Together, these industries account for more than 75% of total GDP growth. Agriculture and communications services are also maintaining positive momentum.
The economy minister also noted that oil’s share of GDP declined to 7.8% by the end of 2025. Meanwhile, the manufacturing industry’s share rose to 14.1%, while the mining industry’s share stood at 12.4% in the first half of the year.