20h05 ▪ 5 min read ▪ by Luc Jose A.
Summarize this article with:
Benjamin Cowen observes that several bitcoin rebounds have lost momentum around the 21st of each month since August. The analyst now envisions a new low in mid-November, but this pattern is based on few observations and does not constitute a statistical rule.
In brief
- Benjamin Cowen has observed that Bitcoin’s momentum has slowed around the 21st of each month since August.
- The analyst predicts a potential new BTC low in mid-November.
- Bitcoin’s drop below $83,000 weakens the case for a rebound ahead of the U.S. elections.
- The Fed, bond yields, and Bitcoin ETF flows could influence the market’s next move.
- The “curse of the 21st” remains a fragile hypothesis based on just a few months of observations.
Three monthly lows followed by a peak around the 21st
Benjamin Cowen has dubbed this phenomenon the “curse of the 21st”. According to him, bitcoin has been forming a low around the middle of the month for three months, then rebounds before encountering resistance around the 21st.
However, the behavior is not exactly the same every month. After August 21, BTC had still advanced slightly until early September. The date therefore corresponds more to a slowing down of the movement than to a precise and systematic peak.
The schedule highlighted by the analyst is based on several points :
- Bitcoin registered a low on August 14 ;
- A new monthly floor appeared on September 15 ;
- The most recent low dates from October 15 ;
- The main rebound phases of August and September slowed around the 21st ;
- Residual strength sometimes extended the rise until early the following month ;
- The next low could appear around mid-November if the rhythm repeats.
Benjamin Cowen wondered on X: “What is so special about the 21st?”.
His scenario places a possible local peak between October 21 and the U.S. midterm elections on November 3.
At the time of his analysis, bitcoin was still defending the $83,000 zone. Since then, the price has fallen below this threshold, which weakens the scenario of a further rise before the elections. The 50-day moving average, near $81,700, now represents an important technical zone.
Elections and the Fed weigh more than the schedule
Cowen does not base his entire forecast on a simple repetition of dates. He also links this rhythm to the U.S. elections and expectations surrounding monetary policy.
According to him, long-term bond yields tend to retreat more sustainably after midterm elections. A drop in market rates can support risky assets, as it reduces the relative appeal of bonds and improves financial conditions.
The next Federal Reserve meeting is therefore a more important event than passing October 21. Stricter policy, persistent inflation, or another rise in yields could weigh on bitcoin. Conversely, a more dovish speech would support demand.
The price of oil, the dollar, and flows to Bitcoin ETFs complete this equation. These factors can quickly change market behavior and invalidate a regularity observed over only a few months.
Cowen remains favorable to bitcoin versus altcoins. BTC dominance is approaching 61%, while ether and several altcoin indexes trade below their own 50-day moving average. This divergence shows that capital still favors the most important asset in the crypto market.
The “curse” remains a fragile hypothesis
A repetition over two or three months is not enough to establish a reliable calendar effect. To confirm an anomaly, several cycles would have to be analyzed, returns around each date compared, and results checked to remain significant after transaction fees.
The choice of the 21st can also create bias. The observer retains the dates that fit the scenario and pays less attention to peaks or lows appearing a few days before or after. A window that is too wide thus allows finding regularities in almost any price series.
Cowen’s scenario should therefore be considered as a marker to watch, not as a certain forecast. A sustained hold below $83,000 would weaken the recent recovery. Several weekly closes below this level would provide a stronger signal than an intraday fluctuation.
The market will mostly have to watch the 50-day moving average, the Fed decision, U.S. yields, and flows into ETFs. These indicators will help judge if Bitcoin is truly preparing a new low in November or if the “curse of the 21st” was just a coincidence.
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Luc Jose A.
Diplômé de Sciences Po Toulouse et titulaire d'une certification consultant blockchain délivrée par Alyra, j'ai rejoint l'aventure Cointribune en 2019. Convaincu du potentiel de la blockchain pour transformer de nombreux secteurs de l'économie, j'ai pris l'engagement de sensibiliser et d'informer le grand public sur cet écosystème en constante évolution. Mon objectif est de permettre à chacun de mieux comprendre la blockchain et de saisir les opportunités qu'elle offre. Je m'efforce chaque jour de fournir une analyse objective de l'actualité, de décrypter les tendances du marché, de relayer les dernières innovations technologiques et de mettre en perspective les enjeux économiques et sociétaux de cette révolution en marche.
DISCLAIMER
The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in this article belong solely to the author, and should not be taken as investment advice. Do your own research before taking any investment decisions.