Ohio Republican gubernatorial candidate Vivek Ramaswamy's odds on prediction markets crashed Tuesday amid backlash to a widely circulated video involving the long-estranged mother of Amy Acton, his Democratic opponent.
Prediction market site Kalshi posted to X on Tuesday, saying that Acton hit a new high with a 76 percent chance of winning the governor's mansion. As of 4 p.m. ET, Ramaswamy's odds sunk to 26.8 percent, a new low on the site. Polymarket similarly posted on Tuesday that Ramaswamy's odds crashed to a new low of 30 percent. As of 4:19 p.m. ET, the Republican's odds dipped further on the site to 22 percent.
The prediction market lows come on the heels of a video clip shared on X, including by journalist and podcast host Walter Curt's account. "My name is Donna Arthur, and I’m Amy Acton’s mother," the speaker says at the start of the video. She continued, saying, "I love my daughter" but accused her of lying about her opponent and upbringing, saying, "Amy has a serious problem; she is a liar."
The woman said that Amy "has lied her entire life," adding that she needs help. "Don’t let her become your governor," the speaker later adds. The video posted to Curt's X account has been seen over 5 million times and reposted over 9,000 times.
The statements by Acton’s mother in the video clip are allegations, not independently established facts, while published accounts describe Acton’s childhood as unsettled. The Democratic gubernatorial candidate told Spectrum News, a cable news outlet in Ohio, in part that she "was removed from [her birth mother] at the age of 12," the Associated Press reported.
Her parents divorced when she was 3 years old, and she lived in around 18 homes by age 12 while moving frequently with her mom and spent one winter in a tent at a campground, local outlet WKBN27 reported.
The video clip of Acton’s mom does not explicitly explain when the video was made or who financed its production. While speaking to reporters Tuesday night, Ramaswamy took credit for the ad, saying, "It is an ad from our campaign."
"The thing that I want to say is that I would love for this race and this election to be about the substantive issues that impact Ohioans, and unfortunately Amy Acton has been hiding from those issues, she won't debate me," he added.
In a sharply worded statement provided to Newsweek earlier Tuesday by Acton’s campaign, Philip Stearns accused Ramaswamy of exploiting his sister’s account of childhood sexual abuse for political purposes and condemned the video as a personal attack.
Newsweek has reached out to Ramaswamy's campaign via email on Tuesday for comment regarding the backlash and new lows in prediction markets.
Backlash Pours in as Ramaswamy's Campaign Responds
As the video circulated social media on Tuesday, people vocalized their opposition to the ad.
“We don't know what happened between Amy and her mother, who first spoke out about Amy in 2020, but we know that Amy Acton is a serial fabulist who has some serious problems with the truth that the public needs to be aware of before deciding who to entrust as governor," Connie Luck, spokesperson for the Ramaswamy campaign, told Newsweek in an emailed statement earlier Tuesday.
“Ohioans are struggling with rising costs and need a governor who can help them. Vivek wants the election to focus on how to solve these problems, but unfortunately Amy Acton has repeatedly resorted to lying about Vivek and his family, lying about her own record, and then hiding from debates and hiding from voters by barring cameras at her own events.
“Vivek has accepted debate invitations from CNN and WLWT because he believes Ohioans deserve to hear directly from the people asking to lead their state. He stands ready to defend his record against Amy Acton’s defamatory lies. If Amy disagrees with these criticisms, she should stand before the people of Ohio, answer the questions, and let voters decide for themselves. The fact that she won’t, and Vivek will, should tell you everything about who’s really lying.”
Meghan McCain, conservative commentator and daughter of late Arizona Senator John McCain, called the video "dastardly."
"This is a dastardly ad. It never should have been created. Shame on whatever consultant firm created this," McCain said.
Lydia Mihalik, director of the Ohio Department of Development who was appointed by Republican Governor Mike DeWine, said on X in response to McCain's post, "I don’t care what political party you belong to or which candidate you support. There are lines we shouldn’t cross, and this is one of them. We can disagree on plenty of things without losing our sense of decency."
Failed Florida gubernatorial candidate James Fishback, a Republican, said on X, "I’ve seen enough: Amy Acton has defeated Vivek Ramaswamy, and is elected the next Governor of Ohio."
Sherrod Brown, Democratic candidate in Ohio for U.S. Senate and former senator, called the ad "disgusting," adding, "Everyone, including Jon Husted, should be willing to condemn this ad." Husted is the Republican incumbent running against Brown in the race for U.S. Senate.
Acton’s campaign also released a new 30-second ad Tuesday featuring her brother, who issued a forceful defense of the Democratic gubernatorial candidate, and accused Ramaswamy of having “contempt for Amy,” adding that “he’s not fit to lead.”
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Laura Loomer, conservative influencer and ally to President Donald Trump, defended Ramaswamy amid the fierce backlash, saying she stands with him. She also reacted to the prediction market odds showing him sinking: "FAKE NEWS @VivekGRamaswamy is soaring in the polls today after @amyactonoh Amy Acton’s own mother disavowed her as a liar. This is completely fake news."
Where Polling Stands
Acton has been up in a majority of recent polls against Ramaswamy. Election forecaster The Cook Political Report has the race rated as a toss-up, as does Sabato’s Crystal Ball.
An ActiVote poll shows Ramaswamy in the lead with 51.4 percent compared to Acton's 48.6 percent. The poll was conducted from September 27 to October 19 among 400 likely voters and had a margin of error of 4.9 percent. This result falls within the average expected error and is a statistical tie.
A Marist poll shows Acton with 50 percent compared to Ramaswamy's 43 percent, 3 percent undecided and another 3 percent saying another party's candidate. The poll surveyed 1,176 respondents from October 15 to October 18 and has a margin of error of 4.5 percent among likely voters.
A Bowling Green State University Democracy and Public Policy Network/YouGov survey shows Ramaswamy with 44 percent versus Acton's 50 percent. Libertarian Don Kissick landed 4 percent and 2 percent said someone else. The poll surveyed 1,000 Ohio likely voters from September 29 to October 9 and had a margin of error of 3.95 percent.
Newsweek’s reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story. Learn more about Martyn here. Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Edward T. Cummins