Craig Kerry
TAB senior trader Tim Ryan says Everest day favourites Ka Ying Rising and Autumn Glow are set to deliver a multimillion dollar “wipeout” on Saturday, after the blow of losing Pride Of Jenni from the King Charles III Stakes.
However, the bookmaker is preparing to “lean into” the most backed runners on the program.
Hong Kong superstar Ka Ying Rising remained a $1.50 favourite to defend his title in the $20 million Everest at Randwick, while Autumn Glow firmed into $1.28 for the five-horse $5 million King Charles after the loss of Pride Of Jenni due to the leg infection.
“I am so flat about that, almost devastated,” Ryan said.
“I thought she was a risk, Autumn Glow, with a Pride Of Jenni in the race, a strong-run mile on a testing track. It would play into Ceolwulf’s hands. Now, it’s probably going to be a jog-trot.
“The Ka Ying Rising into Autumn Glow multi, we are holding nearly a million on that already and that’s going to grow tomorrow, and I’m not confident about getting either beat now.
“Ka Ying Rising is best backed, Autumn Glow is second best, then it’s daylight third.”
Asked what the loss would be if both won, Ryan said: “Wipeout.”
“And I believe we are going to lean into it tomorrow as well, with some generosity,” he said.
“It might cost us four or five million.”
Ka Ying Rising opened at $2.10 for the Everest after winning the race last year by a length and a quarter. He was as low as $1.30 before easing in price after a trial loss to Everest rival Ninja, and Randwick copping close to 100mm of rain this past week. The six-year-old, the winner 22 times in 24 starts and more than $30 million in prizemoney, is untested on heavy tracks.
“Overall we are holding about $3.25 million on him, $2.5 million in multis and $750,000 straight out,” Ryan said.
“Futures-wise, he was the most wagered on in an Everest, surpassing what we held on him last year. And I imagine he will eclipse what we held on final field-wise last year tomorrow.
“Early in the week, I thought it was $1.40 on a soft 6, $1.50 on a soft 7 and $1.60 on a heavy 8.
“After the final field on Tuesday night, there was nothing for him, but at $1.50 on Thursday, he was quite popular. That has dried up a bit now.
“Thursday, he was holding about 65 per cent, now he’s down to 50 per cent of the hold, so that’s telling me it might be time to think about $1.55.
“I don’t really want to lay him. He’s just so much better than them, he’s got the great racing style and he could be a wet tracker. It’s completely unknown, but we know wet tracks can be a class killer.”
He said Stradbroke heavy track winner Spicy Martini ($31) was the TAB’s biggest loser in final field betting at $500,000. Second worst was Ninja ($16).