Can a Three-Loss Nebraska Team Make the College Football Playoff?

When five of the top seven college football teams lose on the same day, chaotic doesn’t faithfully describe this so-far great but wacky season.

No. 1 Georgia, No. 2 Notre Dame, No. 5 Indiana, No. 6 Alabama and No. 7 Texas all lost Saturday, throwing uncertainty into the 12-team College Football Playoff, which tends to wind up with the usual suspects filling available slots.

What does this mayhem mean for 5-2 Nebraska, if anything? Can the Huskers capitalize on the misfortunes of others and squeeze their way into the CFP?

Can Nebraska make the College Football Playoff with three losses, a possible scenario for the Huskers with games remaining against Ohio State and Iowa? Two three-loss teams have made the CFP since it expanded in 2024 — Clemson and Alabama, teams that always seem to have an inside track.

There is work to be done for the Huskers with five games remaining. And they have an added issue. They have to bounce back from consecutive heartbreaking losses to Indiana and Oregon.

What’s ahead for the Huskers

Given all of the gloom and doom around the Huskers over the last two weeks, there remains a clear path — if not an easy one — to make the College Football Playoff.

If Nebraska wins out — a monumental task — it has 90 percent chance of making the CFP, according to projections from The Athletic.

If the Huskers go 4-1 — still a fairly difficult task — that’s a third loss and their odds drop dramatically, down to 11 percent, according to The Athletic. If the Huskers go 3-2, their odds are less than 1 percent.

We agree with The Athletic’s projections. If Nebraska wants to get into the CFP, it better go 5-0 — no excuses, no fourth-quarter collapses. A 10-2 record is the Huskers’ path.

Going 5-0 is not impossible, of course. Nebraska showed for three quarters in each of its losses that it belonged on the field with two of the sport’s elite programs. Despite the slumped shoulders, that should help pick up the Huskers.

Rest of the schedule

Complicating matters for the Huskers is the Big Ten itself. UCLA is undefeated, five teams have one loss and four teams have two losses. That will change with head-to-head games, but it’s possibly 10 teams going for three or four CFP spots. Some current projections have Ohio State, Indiana and UCLA as CFP teams.

The Big Ten, winners of the last three national championships, had four CFP teams in 2024, and three in 2025.

Eleven of 16 SEC teams have two losses or fewer. Four SEC teams are projected for the playoffs: Georgia, Tennessee, Ole Miss and surprising Kentucky. The SEC sent three teams to the playoff in 2024, and five teams in 2025.

Let’s analyze the rest of Nebraska’s schedule.

Oct. 31, Washington: This game, more and more, looks like one that could determine the amount of success for the Huskers in 2026, CFP or not. We suspect the Huskers will be a slight favorite. A Nebraska victory lifts it to a 6-2 record. A loss means 5-3, a three-game losing streak, and the likelihood of a third consecutive seven-win season — solid but not what is expected out of Nebraska.

Nov. 6, at Illinois: The Illini will be without injured starting quarterback Katin Houser for this Friday night game. Backups are backups for a reason. This looks like a Nebraska victory. But a Friday night road game … Husker fans remember last year when a Friday night in Minneapolis turned into a disaster against the Gophers.

Nov. 14, at Rutgers: The Scarlet Knights gave USC a battle into the fourth quarter, so they are capable of scaring anybody. Rutgers can move the ball. But Nebraska should have too much firepower and defensive talent to prevail.

Nov. 21, Ohio State: The Buckeyes, the No. 3-ranked team in the nation in the AP Top 25 Poll, face a major challenge with starting quarterback Julian Sayin out for the season. It will be interesting to see how backup quarterback Luke Fahey, a true freshman, performs in the Buckeyes’ next game, at USC on Halloween night. A win over Ohio State, even under these circumstances, would beef up the Huskers’ resume and end the ghastly streak of 0-31 against ranked teams since October 2016.

Nov. 27, at Iowa: Imagine this rivalry game possibly being a CFP play-in game. Iowa keeps winning over the Huskers, last year was a 40-16 debacle at Memorial Stadium. The Hawkeyes have won 10-of-11 games against the Huskers. Iowa’s lone loss this season was to a full-strength Ohio State.

The first CFP rankings will be released Nov. 3. By then, the Huskers could be 6-2 and clinging to some CFP hope. They also could be 5-3 and perusing the non-CFP bowl schedule.

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