A rematch of the Big Ten Championship Game is set for Saturday, as Ohio State and Indiana meet in Week 7. The first top-five matchup at home involving the Hoosiers ever, what happens here should influence the eventual national championship field.
Here are the key matchups to watch as the Buckeyes and Hoosiers face off.
Ohio State’s one big concern
Jeremiah Smith gets the highlights, but the Buckeyes’ offense could use a little more oomph when running the football. The problem is, that could prove more difficult in this matchup for two very important reasons.
The first? Ja’Kobi Jackson won’t be in the backfield after being declared out with an undisclosed injury. That effectively cuts Ohio State’s rushing output in half right there.
The second? Indiana is one of the best run defenses in college football. It’s 7th in total output, allowing just 75 yards per game, and is giving up just 2.31 yards per carry. Ohio State has 4 carries over 20 yards all season and is 128th in yards before contact.
Indiana’s efficient offense
Josh Hoover is playing turnover-free football this season, and has been uber-efficient when targeting his receivers on short and medium range throws. From there, Indiana’s speedy receivers have been excellent at evading tackles and getting yards after the catch.
Nick Marsh and Charlie Becker are Hoover’s two fast-moving targets. But they might struggle initially against Ohio State’s secondary. It leads FBS allowing 4.8 yards per pass and gave up one pass play of over 30 yards.
Key matchups and advanced metrics
Bill Connelly’s SP+ model rates Ohio State just 0.2 points better overall and projects a 26.4-26.2 score with a 51 percent win probability for the Buckeyes. ESPN’s Power Index is similarly tight, giving Ohio State roughly a 52 percent chance.
The Buckeyes have to protect Sayin against Indiana’s expert pass rush and find more consistency on the ground. Indiana will need to sustain drives against Ohio State’s stout secondary and limit Smith’s explosive plays.
Who wins and why?
Ohio State’s superior talent on the perimeter and proven ability to create big plays should prove decisive in a hostile environment.
While Indiana can keep the game close through physical defense and efficient offense, the Buckeyes’ depth and explosiveness give them the edge in a one-score contest. Expect a hard-fought battle that lives up to the top-five billing.
The Big Lead Prediction: Ohio State 27, Indiana 23
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