Welcome to Power Players, The i Paper’s opinion series in which our writers and experts take an in-depth look at the key figures in American politics as the US reshapes itself and the world.
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• The Democrat who has finally worked out how to beat Trump
As Gavin Newsom, the California Governor, gears up for a possible presidential run, he’s once again betting on a big political risk. I’ve covered him for 22 years – he has a knack for seeing around corners and anticipating where politics is going. But his latest gamble will sorely test that instinct.
Last year, Newsom established himself as one of the most prominent opponents of Donald Trump, mocking the president with language and tone similar to Trump’s own. One post declared: “DONALD IS FINISHED — HE IS NO LONGER ‘HOT’… THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER!”
But as the midterms approach, Newsom – who’s become one of the most powerful and influential Democrats in the country and is likely to run for President in 2028 – has sided with the billionaires. He is opposing a one-time wealth tax on their fortunes that would fund healthcare for poor Californians – healthcare that Trump and the Republicans in Congress are cutting.
Supporters say it’s proof of his pragmatism and good judgement, but critics call it a cynical play to keep tech titans and their deep pockets on his side ahead of a presidential run.
In reporting on the measure, I’ve spoken with centrist Democrats who argue that if the billionaire tax proposal indeed fails, Newsom will be able to argue that he has his finger on the pulse of the electorate and that he’s not a knee-jerk coastal liberal.
Many progressives, however, see his opposition as a betrayal that he will have a hard time explaining on the 2028 campaign trail. They say the current political climate – dominated by anxiety about inequality, inflation, artificial intelligence and technology – could make his alliance with the tech elite a hard sell to Democratic voters.
Newsom argues that he wants to see a national wealth tax but that the California proposal will just push wealthy people and businesses out of state, hurting the state budget in the long term.
It’s a calculation that tracks with the governor’s longtime efforts to maintain relationships with two of the most powerful and often opposing groups in California politics: labor unions and the business community, in particular Silicon Valley. Newsom cut his teeth in San Francisco, one of the most liberal cities in the United States; but he also was a small business owner before running for office and has always had deep and personal ties to some of the state’s most rich and dominant business figures.
Yet he’s also often willing to defy his own allies. In 2004, Newsom was only a month into his first term as San Francisco mayor, following a bruising campaign, when he informed his staff that he wanted City Hall to start issuing marriage licenses for gay and lesbian couples.
Within just a few weeks, hundreds of couples were lining up outside San Francisco City Hall for what would become known as the Winter of Love. It was a gamble that eventually would prove prescient. But in the immediately following weeks and years, it was met with skepticism and even hostility by his own political allies and friends.
The Democratic state attorney general filed suit asking the Supreme Court to shut down the marriages. Newsom was snubbed at the Democratic National Convention and by the Illinois senator – and rising Democratic star – Barack Obama. Shortly after Republican President George W. Bush won reelection that fall, one of Newsom’s political mentors, longtime California Senator Dianne Feinstein, blamed the marriages for energising conservative voters, saying it was “too much, too fast, too soon” for the country.
“The ‘go it slow’ admonition was the mother’s milk of Democratic politics,” Newsom wrote in his memoir, Young Man in a Hurry. But, he reasoned “this was San Francisco… if not here, where?”
It wasn’t the only risky fight he took on. In 2016, as lieutenant governor he threw his political weight behind legalising cannabis in California – a battle he framed as one of social justice. In 2019, just months after taking the governor’s office, he unilaterally placed a moratorium on the death penalty in California, suspending the executions of 737 people then on death row.
Newsom has also adjusted his strategy as politics shifted. At the start of Trump’s second term, the governor struck a conciliatory tone with both the president and some high profile MAGA figures. He met with Trump in Los Angeles after the devastating wildfires there and hosted right wing firebrands including Charlie Kirk and Steve Bannon on his podcast, a move that angered his base.
That posture was short lived, as Trump went on that spring and summer to seize control of the state’s National Guard and flood Los Angeles with immigration agents and federal troops. Newsom went on the offensive with his social media posts. He then led his party nationally in the redistricting wars set off by Trump, passing a ballot measure that redrew California’s congressional districts to give Democrats more seats in Congress.
The move endeared him to many Democrats hungry to see their party punch back. Many of his social media posts went viral, and his fundraising exploded. On political tours to southern swing states, Democrats lined up to see him. But in his final months in office, there are still political minefields ahead.
His approach to artificial intelligence may offer some clues of how Newsom is attempting to balance politics as he pivots to a national run and considers both his tech industry allies and public opinion. After vetoing landmark AI safety legislation two years ago and some AI bills in 2025, he’s signed more this year as public concern about the industry grows. Many of those he backed this year were supported by labor; he also took unilateral action this fall, directing state agencies to create safety protocols similar to those in the legislation he vetoed in 2024.
Beyond the AI debate, Newsom is reportedly considering taking his death penalty moratorium a step farther and commuting the sentences of all 563 prisoners still on death row in California, sparing them the death penalty.
It would be a huge political risk in a country that’s long been split on capital punishment. Recent polls show a majority of Americans still support the death penalty for people convicted of murder. While Democrats are more split than Republicans, support still outweighs opposition. That means a massive commutation by Newsom could pose challenges in both a primary and a general election.
So the question seems to be whether Newsom will follow his heart or his head: A lifelong Catholic, Newsom has said he doesn’t believe the state has a right to kill. His heart, it would seem, is on the side of a commutation – much like it was on the side of same-sex marriage over 20 years ago. But the political wisdom would warn against such a polarising move as he gears up for a national run.
He will have to convince a Democratic electorate to like him, and to believe that he can actually win a Presidential election – something no California Democrat has ever done.