Los Angeles Dodgers ace Tarik Skubal got a contract projection ahead of his marquee free-agent year, showing how expressive he will be.
What Skubal’s market looks like
Skubal is entering MLB free agency at arguably the best or worst time, depending on how teams approach the lockout.
Teams could go on a spending spree to lock up talent before a possible salary cap or new spending rules, but a stalemate is also possible as teams wait before making big commitments.
Either way, teams will line up to bid on Skubal’s services. He is arguably the best pitcher in the game, has a relatively clean health record, and can carry a franchise as one of the faces.
With a reputation, stuff profile, and demeanor of a top-of-the-market ace, Skubal will get a big check.
Tarik Skubal’s contract projection
Spotrac, an outlet that specializes in team and player finances, issued its projection for Tarik Skubal’s next contract.
According to their model, Skubal will get a seven-year, $276 million deal, averaging out to $39.5 million per season.
This contract would make Skubal the league’s second-highest-paid pitcher on a yearly basis, behind only Zach Wheeler at $42 million.
Skubal would be just above Framber Valdez, whom Skubal’s former team, the Detroit Tigers, inked to a $38 million-per-year deal over three years.
How close is the projection?
Given how much healthier, and frankly better, Skubal has been than Wheeler or Valdez, it is hard to see him earn around those two.
Also, Skubal is still only 30, so he is in his prime, while Wheeler and Valdez were in their 30s to varying degrees.
The projection also notes that while it isn’t top AAV money, it’s a seven-year deal, making it the highest AAV for a deal of five years or more.
Still, he will likely get more than the Spotrac projection, adding that the New York Mets, who have money to spend, are crying out for a pitcher like Skubal.
Additionally, the New York Yankees, along with the Toronto Blue Jays, Chicago Cubs, and Philadelphia Phillies, will always lurk.
Then, the Dodgers, of course, will want every chance to match a deal to keep Skubal alongside Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
There will be enough suitors and motivation to head into the 2027 season with Skubal on their team to create a bidding war.