Lansing State Journal columnist Graham Couch looks at Michigan State's game at UCLA. When: 3:37 p.m. ET Saturday. Where: The Rose Bowl, Pasadena, California. TV/Streaming: CBS/Paramount+. Betting line: UCLA -14.
1. Alessio Milivojevic’s performance and health
Alessio Milivojevic popping up on MSU’s Wednesday night injury report this week as questionable is less than ideal — for him and for MSU, which I don’t think has another healthy QB ready to run the show. These next five games might be the most important of Milivojevic’s football career. If he’s going to be MSU’s clear-cut quarterback beyond this season, he’ll have to make some plays he hasn’t yet.
Quarterback is a tricky position, because development isn’t linear and the playmakers around you can make an enormous difference. Milivojevic doesn’t have top-tier receivers. But he’s got a solid running game, an OK-ish offensive line and a couple of targets who’ve been producing of late. In this era, where QBs aren’t all developed from within the program, he’ll have to make the most of what he has — and that includes making the most of open receivers, which he didn’t do last week.
At a similar point in their careers, Kirk Cousins and Connor Cook were no better. And it would be best for the Spartans if Milivojevic (or someone internally) becomes the guy at QB to lead them forward. He hasn’t shown it yet. Outside of the program, there are increasing doubts whether he is that guy. A breakout performance in the Rose Bowl would be a good way to change the narrative, whatever the narrative is worth.
2. Jaziun Patterson’s availability
MSU hasn’t had much luck this season, but the Spartans have been lucky to have Jaziun Patterson as a replacement at running back for Cam Edwards, who was lost for the season to injury in late September. Patterson, who’s listed as questionable for Saturday with an undisclosed injury, has carried 66 times for 281 yards and four touchdowns over the last four games, averaging 4.3 hard-running yards per carry. His last two weeks have been especially productive, with 32 carries for a combined 165 yards (5.2 per carry) with three scores. He’s also caught six passes for 44 yards and a touchdown.
He’s a proven, Big Ten-caliber workhorse. MSU has other backs — maybe others that will prove that they’re just as capable — but missing Patterson would be a blow for a team low on offensive players it can lean on.
3. Can the Spartans make Ty Dieffenbach beat them?
For all the hullabaloo about UCLA — all of it deserved, considering the Bruins’ 6-0 start — there is still a fair question about whether this team will be OK at QB, with Ty Dieffenbach in place of injured starter Nico Iamaleava. Dieffenbach made his first start last week in a 17-7 win over Wisconsin, when he completed 22 of 33 passes for 264 yards and an interception. He finished the Bruins’ win over Oregon a week earlier, including a late third-quarter touchdown drive that put UCLA up 17-6 in a game they hung on to win 17-15. Prior to UCLA, Dieffenbach had one so-so season at Cal Poly and two seasons where he didn’t play at all at Pitt. He’s a big, athletic quarterback, but not exactly a blue-chipper.
The question is whether MSU can keep this close enough to make Dieffenbach feel the pressure of the situation. Can the Spartans’ shut down enough of the rest of UCLA’s offense so the game is on Dieffenbach to win? Can they get him to turn the ball over — as he’s been prone to do in his career? UCLA might be fine with Dieffenbach at quarterback. There are folks out there who think they will be. But he is still the most likely vulnerability in the Bruins’ resurgence.
4. How good is UCLA really?
The Bruins were a mess a year ago, other than when they came to East Lansing and put a hurtin' on MSU and expedited the end of the Jonathan Smith era. So how are they so good now? Well, new coach Bob Chesney brought 11 players with him from James Madison (the Curt Cignetti playbook), many of whom are playing important roles, and convinced a number of key starters to return, which meant UCLA had its NIL/revenue share situation in order despite the coaching instability.
Still, this is not a UCLA roster filled with first-round NFL draft picks. There are several projective middle-round draft picks. And others — like 5-foot-7 running back Wayne Knight (one of those James Madison transfers) — have been difference-makers. It’s a seasoned and talented enough team, enjoying a lot of the culture Chesney and his staff brought with them from James Madison. The MSU team we saw most of the last two weeks — if that team is healthy enough to play Saturday — shouldn’t be physically overwhelmed by this UCLA crew, though the Bruins have been impressive physically up front.
5. The crowd at the Rose Bowl
UCLA is a power-four school in every way except for its fan base (even in basketball, where the Bruins are considered a historic blue blood, but don't routinely sell out Pauley Pavilion). Someone should tell the residents of Los Angeles about this season.
UCLA is undefeated, with a manageable schedule ahead and real hopes of a College Football Playoff bid and maybe even a Big Ten championship. And yet, I’d be surprised if the crowd at the Rose Bowl on Saturday isn’t at least 40% MSU fans, with seats to spare. UCLA is used to the situation. It hasn’t hurt their performance one bit this season. The question is, how much can it help MSU? It has to be heartening to take the field a couple thousand miles from home only to see the stands filled with a lot of your fans. For an MSU team getting off the mat after five straight defeats, a quasi-home/neutral site game in the Rose Bowl is a pretty good way to spend a Saturday.
Prediction
It’s hard to tell how potent this UCLA offense is with Ty Dieffenbach at quarterback. The Bruins scored just 17 points each of the last two weeks, albeit against more seasoned defenses than MSU’s in Oregon and Wisconsin. If Alessio Milivojevic and Jaziun Patterson are healthy enough to play and play well, and MSU’s defense plays like it did most of last week, this could be a competitive game into the fourth quarter. The atmosphere won’t be intimidating. The opposing quarterback is a potential vulnerability. MSU should feel like it has a chance.
Make it: UCLA 24, MSU 13
Contact Graham Couch at gcouch@lsj.com. Follow him on X @Graham_Couch and BlueSky @GrahamCouch.
This article originally appeared on Lansing State Journal: Michigan State football at UCLA: 5 determining factors and a prediction